Vick Reinstated

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell reinstated quarterback and former dog-fighting ring operator Michael Vick to the league today. But he did so under a few conditions. Vick may sign with a team and go to training camp, but he will not be allowed to play until the final two preseason games. Then, once the season begins, Vick would be permitted to take part in all team activities and practices except for games until Week 6, at which point he will be eligible for full reinstatement. Basically, it's a five-game suspension. Of course, to get fully reinstated Vick has to earn it. He can't screw up again. As Goodell stated in his letter to Vick, "I accept that you are sincere when you say that you want to, and will, turn your life around, and that you intend to be a positive role model for others. I am prepared to offer you that opportunity. Whether you succeed is entirely in your hands."

Did the commissioner let him off easy? That's the point of view of many right now who would have just as soon seen Vick banished for life from the league or at least be suspended for the year. After all, playing in the NFL is a privilege, not a right. Being allowed basic freedoms, including being able to pursue a job in any profession now that he has done his time by serving two years in jail is his right. You can quibble with the length of his sentence, but it's a little too late for that. The real issue of the moment is that Goodell did not have to reinstate Vick. No one forced him to do so and many would have sided with him if he hadn't done so. No employer or industry is being forced to open their arms to welcome Vick right now. The guess here is that neither PETA nor Alpo will be giving him job opportunities. But the NFL is giving him a second chance and I happen to agree with Goodell's conditional reinstatement. I am in favor of forgiveness and redemption even for the type of hideous transgressions of which Vick is guilty. And yes, I'm a dog-owner and I'm appalled by what Vick did.

Not to get all preachy, but I don't think too many of us would get too far if we weren't offered forgiveness and second chances. Not everybody kills dogs, but everyone whether they are a professional athlete or not is guilty of something. No one is unblemished. I sincerely hope Vick gets his act together, speaks out against the terrible things he did, becomes a champion for animal rights, and tells kids about forgiveness and redemption. He has a heckuva mentor in his corner in Tony Dungy. I hope he leans on him constantly and learns from his goodness and wisdom. Do I really think all of these things will happen? Let's just say I'm not holding my breath. But Vick, just like anyone else, deserves a chance in my book.

Now, as for the fantasy ramifications of his reinstatement, we all must reserve judgment until he 1. signs with someone, and 2. stays on the straight an narrow. Having said that, regardless of where he signs I do not expect Vick to have a significant fantasy impact in 2009. No team is going to hand him the starting reins and it is doubtful that a quarterback who was a lousy passer to begin with got any better while sitting out of football for two years. He was never a great quarterback. Vick was a running back with a strong arm. A phenomenal athlete to be sure, but not a great quarterback. This is not to say he wasn't a fantasy commodity of some value. In many leagues he was. Any player that can rush for 1,000 yards and throw for 20 touchdowns, as Vick did in 2006 has some value. There are many who point to Vick as an ideal "Wild Cat" quarterback, and that may initially be his role wherever he signs. That's assuming he hasn't lost his ridiculous speed and elusiveness. If he has, he's in trouble from a job-search perspective. Again, we'll just have to wait and see where he ends up.

Many teams, just like many people, don't want to give Vick a chance. Many front-office types have stated that they have no intention of adding such a controversial player to their team. The Falcons released him in June. That is their right. But he will sign with someone; I don't doubt that for a second. His agent is fielding calls from teams right now. I would submit that fantasy owners in dynasty leagues who aren't boycotting Vick might want to take a last-round flier on him in hopes that he has a meaningful role by next season. That's the extent of his fantasy value at this juncture. Those in re-draft leagues need not waste a pick on him at this point.

Palmer Doubter

I recently read in one of the many preseason NFL magazines that are currently spreading across your newsstand shelves that Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer is the most underrated player in the league. Um, what? They may as well have written that Kurt Warner was the most agile quarterback or Chad Pennington had the strongest throwing arm. In my mind, nothing could be further from the truth.

The fact is, in fantasy football circles, Palmer is very overrated. Not as overrated as his No. 1 receiver Chad Ochocinco, but overrated nonetheless. The vast majority of fantasy outlets I review still have Palmer rated as a borderline top-10 quarterback. Some actually have him just inside the top 10. And judging from the average draft position data from online mock drafts, the mouth-breathing fantasy football lemmings in this wonderful pastime of ours wholeheartedly agree. They must still think we're talking about the Carson Palmer from the 2004-07 era, the guy who averaged 4,001 yards and 29 touchdown passes a season. That guy was really good. He was a top-five fantasy quarterback. Unfortunately, that guy doesn't live here anymore.

Palmer no longer has two Pro-Bowl caliber wide receivers as he did then. Chad Johnson's productivity has disappeared faster than his real last name and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is now in Seattle, replaced by Laveranues Coles, who has never scored even eight times in a season and who has topped 1,000 yards just once in the last five years. Vintage Palmer also had a Pro-Bowl caliber running back, Rudi Johnson, to take the heat off him. Now he has a first-round bust, Cedric Benson, whose next full season of meaningful fantasy numbers will be his first.

Lastly and most significantly, the Palmer of two, three, four years ago also had a healthy right arm. What's that, you say? Palmer just told Fanhouse a couple weeks ago that his arm is 100 percent? Right. And that dude on the radio selling naming rights to stars really and truly owns the naming rights to all the heavenly bodies in the night-time sky. Call me crazy, but I just don't trust that Palmer is truly healthy. He might look good now running around in shorts throwing passes with no real pressure to speak of, but we'll see what happens when the hitting starts.

Palmer missed 12 games last year because the ulnar collateral ligament as well as a tendon had become partially detached in his throwing elbow. Some doctors told him he needed Tommy John surgery to repair the damage. Some others told him he could let it heal on its own. He listened to the latter and chose not to go under the knife. This can't end well, can it? I'm not wishing for Palmer's arm to snap off or anything. I have nothing against the guy. However, he has too many red flags to ignore. There is no chance he'll be on any of my fantasy teams in 2009...not when any throw could be his last of the season.

Ranking Mo-Jo

Let me say first of all that I am a Maurice Jones-Drew fan. I think he is a great running back and I even had him on one of my teams last season. When Fred Taylor was let go by the Jaguars this offseason, the move opened the door for Mo-Jo to become the Jaguars feature back, free from the nearly 50/50 timeshare he had going with Taylor. In light of the transaction, I moved Jones-Drew up in my rankings from somewhere in the early to mid teens to safely inside the top 10. He ultimately settled in at the seventh spot for performance leagues based on my 2009 projections for him: between 1,150 and 1,200 yards rushing, another 550 or so yards receiving, and 14 touchdowns. The receiving yardage and touchdowns would be on par with what he did last year; the rushing yardage would be a career high by more than 200 yards.

It seemed like a fair projection given that he stands to get additional carries each week. Here's some math: if we assume that Jones-Drew gets 50 percent more carries on average each week this year than last year -- an increase from 12 to 18 carries per game, that would put him at 293 carries. By the way, only five running backs had more carries than that last year so that's a pretty generous assumption for a guy who is 5-7 and just over 200 pounds. Now let's assume he averages 4.0 yards per carry. Why only 4.0? Simple, because his yards-per-carry average has gone down each season, from 5.7 to 4.6 to 4.2 last year. The more carries he gets, the lower his average. This trend also plays out within games, as Mo-Jo averaged just 3.6 yards per carry in the fourth quarter of games last year. Multiplying 293 by four gets you 1,172 yards. Hence my prediction.

When tallying up what that gets you in terms of fantasy points in a standard league, those stats still leave Jones-Drew behind Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Matt Forte, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton in my rankings. Apparently it has also made me the target of those who suggest I am being blasphemous, namely two of the co-hosts (Paul Charchian and Christian Peterson) from the "Fantasy Football Weekly" radio program that I do. They both have Mo-Jo No. 1 overall regardless of scoring system. Now, in a PPR league, I could see taking either Jones-Drew or Forte No. 1. But not in any other type of league.

Taking a quick glance around the industry, it looks as though there is a general consensus that I have Jones-Drew a bit low. I have yet to see another outlet that has him No. 1, but maybe I'm just not looking hard enough. I know NFL.com has him 4, Fanball.com has him 4, Lindy's has him 2, ESPN.com, Pro Football Weekly, and Yahoo! all have him 3, and The Sporting News has him 7 just like me.

I feel as though Mo-Jo is an en vogue top-three this year because he's "different." He's the cool pick because it implies owners are thinking outside the box a little. Peterson seems too obvious...but maybe that's for good reason.

People are overreacting to the departure of Taylor if you ask me. Jones-Drew has never been a feature back before and has never had 200 carries or 1,000 yards. I know he is strong and tough, but he's still just 5-7, 200-ish pounds. I'm not totally convinced he's going to hold up to the pounding and violence of perhaps the most brutal position in all of sports. Lastly, I would not be at all surprised if the Jaguars were hesitant to hand him a full 20-25 carry per game workload. They've always divvied up carries in the past; why stop now? Rookie Rashad Jennings, at 6-1 and 234 pounds, seems especially built for use in short yardage and at the goal line. Might he vulture several touchdowns? I would not be the least bit shocked if he does.

I'll say it again: I like Jones-Drew. Great player. He just doesn't belong atop your fantasy football rankings. I'll take the guy who's going to rush for 2,000 yards one of these years instead. But I'm sure the debate has only just begun.

Fantasy Football Camp

For those of you hardcore fantasy football fans in the upper Midwest, I want to invite you to the Fantasy Football Camp event that will be taking place at Treasure Island Resort and Casino in Red Wing, Minnesota on August 15. I'll be there along with my co-hosts from the "Fantasy Football Weekly" radio show, Paul Charchian, John Tuvey, and Christian Peterson.

We will be doing a live broadcast of the radio show on KFAN from 10 am to 12 noon, followed by two or three hours of more in-depth fantasy football analysis including a mock draft.

Here is the press release with more details about the Fantasy Football camp.

As you can see in the release, there will even be space set aside at the casino for leagues to hold their drafts at the event.

When we did a similar event to this one two years ago, it was a lot of fun. We had a huge turnout and I am looking forward to an even bigger audience this time. For fantasy football freaks this is a can't-miss event so I hope to see many of you there!

2009 Cheat Sheet

Ladies and gentlemen, may I direct your attention to the right side of this page...

It's the official 2009 Fantasy Football Legend cheat sheet. I posted it today and will continue to post updated rankings between now and the start of the season. And yes, it's free. Just click on the link and you will be able to go to scribd.com, download it, and print it out.

It's important to note that the scoring system I had in mind when creating the rankings for the FFLegend cheat sheet is your typical performance league. Specifically, I assumed that roughly half the points would be scored by touchdowns and the other half by yardage. So a touchdown equals a 100 yards of rushing or receiving and about 250 yards passing. This is NOT a cheat sheet for a PPR league, touchdown-only league, dynasty league, or keeper league.

Perhaps I'll add those formats to my to-do list.

For now, go ahead and download the cheat sheet and do with it what you will. It's a simple, easy-to-read format and I know hundreds of people on scribd.com downloaded it last year.

Back on the Air

It was good to be back on the radio airwaves yesterday!

I joined Paul Charchian and John Tuvey in studio at KFAN Radio Tuesday morning to talk fantasy football for an hour. Our primary topic was sleepers and I touted Shaun Hill, Ray Rice, and Justin Gage as three of my favorite underrated players this preseason. We also got into where we'd rank each of the primary Vikings players since KFAN is the Vikings flagship station. John and I say Adrian Peterson is the No. 1 player in fantasy football; Charch went with Maurice Jones-Drew (wrong answer!).

Today's hour of fantasy football speculation was a precursor of sorts to our "Fantasy Football Weekly" radio program which kicks off its 15th season on August 1. The show can be heard Saturdays from 10-12 noon CT on KFAN and KFAN.com, where it can also be downloaded (after it airs) in their "FAN on Demand" section. It is the longest-running and most popular show of it's kind on the air. Check it out sometime and see why!

To hear Tuesday's program, click here.

As I mentioned, the show begins August 1st; however, I will be out of the studio that day riding my bike on The Hartford Breast Cancer Ride. My plan is to call in from the road that day for about five minutes, but we'll have to see if I remember to do so while trying to bike nearly 150 miles in two days.

By the way, if you wish to sponsor me on The Hartford Breast Cancer Ride, you may do so online at my personal page here. Thanks in advance for your generosity!

Industry Expert Draft Review

I have been on the lookout for some industry expert leagues to get into this season to represent FFChamps.com and FFLegend.com. I've found a couple of pretty good ones, and recently I took part in my first industry experts league draft of the year. I am competing in this particular league against 11 other fantasy football outlets, including pros from USA Today, CBS Sportsline, Pro Football Weekly, FFIndepth.com (the organizer of the league) and many others.

This league uses the same rules as the World Championship of Fantasy Football, most notably it's a point-per-reception (PPR) league. Our lineup consists of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker, one team defense, and a flex position player (WR, TE, or RB).

I had the fifth overall pick, so after Maurice Jones-Drew went No. 1 (mistake!), Adrian Peterson went second, and Matt Forte went third, I was sitting on either Larry Fitzgerald Jr. or Andre Johnson with my pick. Remember, in PPR leagues like this, the popular strategy of taking a running back in the first round does not always apply. Well, as fate would have it, Fitz went No. 4 to PFW so I grabbed Johnson. (Yes, Beavis, that's what I said).

I employed the "do the opposite" strategy and ended up with a team I like a lot, including Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Peyton Manning with my first three picks, and three 1,000-yard rushers (Ryan Grant, Derrick Ward, and Thomas Jones) in my backfield.

For those of you unfamiliar with the "opposite" draft strategy, I invite you to check out the Fantasy Football University class on Fantasy Football Terminology at FFChamps.com. It's free to non-subscribers, like all of the FFU classes.

Here's how my team turned out, ordered by round:

1. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
2. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers
3. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
4. Ryan Grant, RB, Packers
5. Derrick Ward, RB, Buccaneers
6. Thomas Jones, RB, Jets
7. Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings
8. John Carlson, TE, Seahawks
9. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings
10. Eli Manning, QB, Giants
11. Minnesota Vikings Defense
12. Justin Gage, WR, Titans
13. Earnest Graham, RB, Buccaneers
14. Kevin Boss, TE, Giants
15. James Davis, RB, Browns
16. Jason Elam, K, Falcons
17. Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars
18. Ryan Longwell, K, Vikings

According to the FFChamps C3 cheat sheet for PPR leagues, I have the No. 2 quarterback, No. 2 and No. 6 wide receivers, No. 2 kicker, No. 2 team defense, and the No. 6 tight end. Waiting on running backs hurt my depth there, but I still wound up with three top-20 backs. I like my sleepers (Justin Gage and Kevin Boss) and I like Eli Manning's matchup (vs. Saints) on Peyton's bye week. Moreover, my two rookie running backs could surprise and I handcuffed Graham to Ward. I also don't have any bye week issues.

Here is my Week 1 Lineup:
QB - Peyton Manning
RB - Derrick Ward
RB - Ryan Grant
WR - Andre Johnson
WR - Greg Jennings
WR - Bernard Berrian
Flex - Thomas Jones
TE - John Carlson
K - Jason Elam
D - Vikings

All in all, I would say the draft was a success. Let me know what you think of my team.

NFL Strength of Schedule

I always find NFL strength of schedule analysis to be a bit overrated because it is based solely on last year's winning percentages and does not account for the changes made since via free agency and the draft. Nor does it account for injuries. Case in point: does anyone think the Patriots will be worse this year than they were last year when Tom Brady essentially missed the entire season? Nevertheless, looking at the strength of schedule can give one an approximate idea of how soft or hard a given team's schedule is at a glance. It's entertaining and good water cooler fodder. To that end, here is a look at this year's strength of schedule ranked from toughest to easiest:

(Note: click on the image to see a larger version of the table)

In terms of its usefulness for fantasy football purposes, the strength of schedule purely based on winning percentages from last year has a limited application. It is far better to analyze how opposing defenses fared against the run and against the pass and then break those stats down further into yardage and touchdowns to determine how that translates into points in your league's particular scoring system. Even then, the schedule analysis must be tempered by the fact that it's still just last year's stats and many things can change from year to year. In that context it is interesting data to have, yet it should not be a primary determining factor in doing your player rankings. It is most useful when deciding between two players at the same position with similar values. Using the strength of each player's schedule can act as a tie-breaking factor in these cases.

FantasyFootballChamps.com has a great series on S.O.S. that takes this fantasy perspective. I would encourage FFChamps subscribers to have a look if they find this sort of thing interesting and helpful.

Ranking Brady

Amid conflicting rumors regarding the status of his surgically repaired knee, back in mid-December I blogged over at FantasyFootballChamps about where to rank Tom Brady going into next year's fantasy football season. I contended that it would be tough to rank a healthy Tom Brady outside of my top-three quarterbacks heading into next season. Those that responded and commented on the blog seemed to agree.

Now, with this week's news per the Boston Globe that Brady is running, throwing, and more or less on track to be ready to go once the season starts, what do you think? The Globe's report is the first really solid, detailed update that we have had on his condition so we can with more certainty assume he will be ready to go once the season kicks off.

I personally would not feel comfortable taking Brady No. 1 at quarterback. I think I'd go the safe route and draft either Peyton Manning or Drew Bress instead. However, if it comes down to a choice between Brady and the likes of Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, or Kurt Warner, I'd have a tough time resisting Tom. After all, the last time we saw him play for more than one quarter, he was busy setting the single-season record for touchdown passes.

Of course, long before making such critical fantasy decisions we will know where Matt Cassel is playing. Cassel says he is open to the possibility of returning to New England next season as the backup to Brady, but free agency offers could make him change his tune. The Patriots might apply the franchise tag to the free agent-to-be quarterback as soon as next week. Doing so would tie up a giant percentage of their salary cap in two players that play the same position. Hence, the speculation that the Patriots will entertain trade offers for Cassel. And if they don't retain Cassel, letting him become a free agent, it will send a pretty clear message that the Patriots are confident that Brady will be ready.

What do you think? If you had to draft today, where would you rank Tom Brady heading into the 2009 fantasy football season? Is he top-three at quarterback? Is he No. 1? Or are you too gun shy to roll the dice on him as one of the top quarterbacks next season?

Bo is a member of the FSWA.

The Case for Fitz

This past Sunday, Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald caught 10 passes for 151 yards against the Seahawks, but he failed to reach the end zone for the third time in his last four games. In spite of his recent scoring drought, Fitzgerald remains on pace to score 10 touchdowns this season and a solid case could be made that he warrants designation as the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy football. I know his teammate, Anquan Boldin, has caught more touchdown passes this season, and I realize that the Texans Andre Johnson has him by 16 yards.  But I don't think many people realize the rarified air Fitz is on pace to reach if he continues at his current clip.

Specifically, Fitzgerald is on pace for 107 receptions, 1,502 yards, and 10 touchdowns. It would mark the third time in his six-year career that he has reached 100 receptions, 1,400 yards, and 10 touchdowns. 

That got me to wondering how rare it is for a receiver to reach that trio of milestones.  So I started doing some digging and I found that Marvin Harrison has done it four times, Jerry Rice did it three times, and Randy Moss has only done it once.  It took Harrison until he was 30 to reach those levels three times. It took Rice, arguably the best to ever play the game, until he was 33 to do it. Fitzgerald is 25. I can't find anyone else who turned the 100/1,400/10 trick three times before their 26th birthday. If you can, let me know.

Whether you play in a touchdown-only league, performance league, or PPR league, and especially if you play in a keeper league, I can't think of a wide receiver I would rather have on my fantasy team.  I know Boldin is hotter right now and Roddy White has been every bit as good as Fitz this season, but no one can compare to Larry's combination of skill, youth, stats, and consistency.  He will definitely be the No. 1 wide receiver in my rankings heading into next season.

Who Comes After Peterson?

Whether you call him AD, AP, or Adrian Peterson, what most people are now calling the Vikings Pro Bowl running back is the best player in fantasy football. That is, unless you play in a point-per-reception or touchdown-only league, in which case Peterson remains merely "one of the best." However, most leagues are not built around PPR rules and the basic TD-only league is fading quickly in popularity, meaning that in most cases the NFL's current leading rusher is numero uno.

Of course, for some of us who have been hailing Peterson as the best player in fantasy football since last season, this comes as no surprise. I know there are still some people who don't buy into him as the No. 1 overall player (and I am also sure some of them will comment on this post) but my mind is made up as to who will sit atop my fantasy football rankings again next year.

The question for me is: who is AP? As in: who comes after Peterson in the rankings heading into next season? For some of you in keeper leagues and dynasty leagues and others who are hopelessly behind in re-draft leagues, it is not too early to start looking ahead in this way. We had this discussion of who comes after Peterson during our Fantasy Football Weekly radio program this past Saturday and we did not come up with a clear-cut answer. Michael Turner, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Matt Forte were suggested. A compelling argument could be made for Brandon Jacobs as well. What about Clinton Portis? Joseph Addai?

Compelling arguments could be made against the aforementioned Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook. They were universally ranked with Peterson in the top three on most people's lists heading into the 2008 season; however, both have had injury issues this season and both turn 30 years old (the dreaded age for running backs) this upcoming offseason.

I would suggest with a great deal of certainty that the player who comes after Peterson on my list next summer will not be a quarterback or wide receiver. There is no clear-cut-far-and-away No. 1 player at either of those two positions and therefore no reason to reach for one at the top of the first round.

So, what say you? Fast forward to the summer of 2009 and tell me who you think will be the consensus top two, or three, or four, or five players in fantasy drafts. I'd love to hear some opinions.

Doubting Thomas

As the Jets get set to take on the Patriots Thursday night in prime time I can't help but think that the hot streak that Thomas Jones has been on lately is about to come to an end.   Just as it was easy to see by looking at his schedule that Jones was going to have a productive period from Weeks 6-10, it is easy to anticipate lower numbers for at least the next two games.

Jones was someone I was touting as a buy low candidate prior to his recent stretch; I even tried in vain to acquire him in a trade in two leagues. Too bad I didn't because from Weeks 6-10 he exploded for eight touchdowns and is now tied for second amongst running backs with nine total touchdowns on the season. The nine scores matches his career high. He is also fifth in the NFL in rushing now with 750 yards. His cupcake-filled schedule is clearly to blame. During his recent torrid stretch he played against the 15th, 25th, 29th, 30th, and 32nd ranked run defenses in the NFL.  Any runner worth his salt would have put up big numbers.

However, tonight's game against the Patriots should be a different story.  The Patriots rank 12th against the run thanks in large part to Ronnie Brown's ridiculous 113-yard, four-touchdown effort against them back in Week 3. Outside of that game, the Patriots have not permitted any running back to top 100 yards or run for a touchdown against them this season.  In his last three games against New England, Jones has accumulated a total of 131 yards on 40 carries and has not reached the end zone. After getting stifled by the Patriots tonight, Jones goes on the road to face Albert Haynesworth and the Titans, who currently boast the eighth-ranked run defense and the No. 1 defense in the league in terms of points against.  I fully expect Jones to be held under 100 yards and out of the end zone in both games.

After the next two weeks his schedule loosens up a bit again, so fantasy owners could be in a position to "buy low" on him once again just prior to the fantasy playoffs.  So if you missed out on the chance to acquire him just prior to his recent tear, have some patience because you might get a second chance... assuming your league has a late trade deadline.

Gettin' Thiggy With It

You may be asking yourself: "Who in the world is Tyler Thigpen and why the heck is he the hot pickup du jour in fantasy football right now?" Glad you asked! Thigpen was taken in the seventh round of the NFL draft by the Vikings last year and competed for the third quarterback spot on the depth chart in training camp. When the Vikes released him with the intention of putting him on their practice squad, the Chiefs snapped him up and added him to their active roster behind Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard.  He attempted only six passes and had one of them intercepted his rookie season. 

He began this season buried in the third spot on the KC depth chart again, but when Croyle and Huard were placed on Injured Reserve three weeks ago, Thigpen was given his chance to start. In his first game, he out-dueled his idol, Brett Favre, by throwing for 280 yards and two touchdowns. His performance raised many eyebrows. Two starts later the Chiefs still have not won under him, which is hardly a surprise given the state of their defense, but Thigpen has not been to blame. Through three starts he has completed 65 percent of his passes (66-102) for 710 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions.  The completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio is particularly impressive for such an inexperienced quarterback out of the Big South conference. Note: he was the first player from the conference to be drafted by an NFL team. 

I'm sure that in the coming weeks, opposing coaches will begin to develop a book on Thigpen, but how much that matters is debatable since his remaining schedule is so favorable. His last seven games with are as follows, with defensive rank against the pass in parentheses: Saints (27), Bills (16), Raiders (13), Broncos (28), Chargers (32), Dolphins (25), and Bengals (10). 

As you can see, the balance of his schedule is loaded with cupcakes. With two great weapons like Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe, and the return of Larry Johnson to supply an actual running game this week, there is reason for optimism surrounding Thigpen. If you are in need of quarterback depth down the stretch, you could do much worse than to get Thiggy.

Vetoing Trades

A listener to the Fantasy Football Weekly radio show that I co-host called in this past Saturday and asked about a seemingly unbalanced trade that went down in his league. He wondered whether we thought it should be vetoed.

Whenever the topic of vetoing trades comes up, it gets me going. I admit that I get just as frustrated as any owner when a lopsided deal goes down in a league in which I am playing (and I am not the lucky owner on the good end of the deal). That said, I am adamantly opposed to trade vetoes unless and only unless some kind of under-handed intentions (e.g. collusion) can be proven. If two owners are in cahoots to try and build one championship team and split the money, there is not only grounds for veto, but also for kicking the offenders out of the league. In nearly every other case I can think of, vetoing is ill-advised.

The reason is that it opens up an ugly can of worms. Once you set the precedent that trade can be vetoed, every other trade will be called into scrutiny. In light of the fact that almost no trades are completely fair and balanced, this will lead to chaos. Owners will want to veto trades that help their rivals, are the least bit unbalanced, or merely out of spite because one of their trades was shot down.

The bottom line is that you can't legislate against stupidity. Ill-informed, short-sighted, or lazy owners will make stupid trades every year; there is nothing you can do about it. Besides, how many times has that "horrible" trade that made every owner in your league groan and complain turn out to favor the team that supposedly made the terrible deal? From my lengthy experience, I would say at least half the time.

Veto the trade veto.

Curse of the Top Scorer

As I was doing some research today for an article at FFChamps.com I came across a rather troubling revelation. I was writing a little something about Packers kicker Mason Crosby because he led the NFL in scoring last year with 141 points and I cited the fact that no kicker has led the league in scoring in consecutive seasons since the Patriots John Smith did so in 1979 and 1980. I annually cite this stat for the reigning scoring champ amongst kickers as a reason to not expect a great follow up season. What’s more, kickers rarely come close to their league-leading total for an encore; just three of them since Smith’s repeat have even come within 20 points of their league-leading total the following year. However, I knew that stat already too because, you know, I’m kind of a fantasy stat geek like that.

What I did not realize, though, was just how pervasive the curse of the leading scorer was. It’s almost as lethal as the Madden or Sports Illustrated cover jinxes. Note I said “leading scorer,” not “leading scorer among kickers.” Of the last eight scoring champs (i.e. all of them this millennium) five are no longer in the NFL. The only three active players are the last two—Crosby and LaDainian Tomlsinon—and Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri, who led the league in 2004 with 141 points as a member of the Patriots. The other players to lead the NFL in scoring since 2000 are: Shaun Alexander (2005) who has yet to find a team willing to sign him since being cut by the Seahawks, Jeff Wilkins (2003) who retired this offseason, Priest Holmes (2002), and Marshall Faulk (2000 and 2001). Go back a bit further and you have Mike Vanderjagt (1999), Gary Anderson (1998), and Mike Hollis (1997), none of whom have an NFL job.

Now, this doesn’t necessarily worry me as far as Crosby is concerned since he is still a few months shy of his 24th birthday and the good kickers have been known to stick around until their late 30s and early 40s. I’m not saying I think Crosby will repeat as scoring champ this season, with or without Brett Favre, because by all accounts that isn’t humanly possible. However, my findings add more fuel to my anti-Tomlinson malaise. I have no doubt that Tomlinson deserves to be one of the first two players selected in fantasy drafts for non-keeper and non-dynasty leagues this year. That said, he turned 29 a few weeks ago, had a knee injury during the postseason that would have forced him to miss an estimated six games had it occurred during the regular season, and spoke to ESPN earlier this offseason about the fact that he won’t be playing five years from now because he wants to go out on top. Running backs that produce past the age of 30 are rare and the level of average output declines precipitously for each additional year after that.

Thus, even in the best scenario I would have thought that L.T. only had three good seasons left in the tank. The jinx of the scoring leader suggests, however, that his exit from the game might come even sooner and there is no hope for another season like the one he had two years ago. I hope that's wrong, but who am I to argue with such overwhelming evidence?

The Favre Saga

Just when I thought my fantasy football cheat sheets were looking pretty good, the rumors of the return of Brett Favre began intensifying. As a huge Favre apologist, I'm all for it. Though, as someone who would have to go through and re-assess what No. 4's triumphant return to the Packers (or more likely another team) would do to my rankings, I'm not quite as thrilled. Oh well, someone's bound to blow out a knee in training camp and rearrange my rankings anyways, so it's not that big of a deal. Like everyone else, I just want the drama to end soon and some kind of a decision to be made one way or another.

Friday's report by ESPN's Chris Mortenson makes it seem like we're one step closer to some kind of resolution, thankfully. Mort says Favre's agent has contacted the Packers to formally ask for Favre's unconditional release. Then the Packers released a statement this afternoon that read as follows:

The Green Bay Packers are aware of the latest developments regarding Brett Favre.

Brett earned and exercised the right to retire on his terms. We wanted him to return and welcomed him back on more than one occasion.

Brett’s press conference and subsequent conversations in the following weeks illustrated his commitment to retirement.

The finality of his decision to retire was accepted by the organization. At that point, the Green Bay Packers made the commitment to move forward with our football team.

As a retired player, Brett has the option to apply for reinstatement with Commissioner Goodell. If that were to occur, he would become an active member of the Green Bay Packers. As always, the Packers will do what’s right and in the best interest of the team.

As with all Packers greats, Brett’s legacy will always be celebrated by our fans and the organization, regardless of any change in his personal intentions.

Brett and Deanna will always be a part of the Packers family.

Stay tuned because this saga needs to come to a head within two weeks before the start of training camps. We should know soon whether this was all just speculation or Favre actually will be wearing a different team's uniform in 2008.

Simple Draft Day Tips

It never fails. At every draft I attend, several of the owners show up with a stack of fantasy football magazines and a case of beer thinking they’ve done their preparations for the most important day on the fantasy football calendar. Then they proceed to draft a guy who’s out for the season with a knee injury. Nice work.

I’m not saying you need to study complex strategies like the Value Based Drafting system or strictly adhere to the Stud Running Back method of picking your team, but you have to at least have some kind of strategy and do some kind of prep work. Most of all, you need to pay attention to the news during the preseason in order to stay abreast of the latest on things like injuries and position battles. For those of you who want to take a minimalist approach to your draft prep, here are four easy tips that, when combined with a knowledge of the latest news from around the league, can lead to draft day success.

1. Have an up-to-date cheat sheet with your rankings and auction values if you use an auction to select players. Then track the players as they are selected so you know who has been taken and who is left. Doing so will enable you to always be prepared to pick without suffering the embarrassment of screaming out the name of a player who has already been selected.

2. Have a team-by-team tracker on which you list each player by team as they are picked. This will enable you to know what the needs are of the other teams in your league. Doing so allows you to make smarter selections. For instance, if you are up and still need a tight end, and all the teams that pick between your current selection and next selection already have a tight end, you can wait until your next turn to grab one. Use the current pick to fill a need or add depth at another position instead.

3. Have a schedule handy that includes the bye weeks for each team. It’s just plain dumb to draft three running backs who have the same bye week. Furthermore, having the bye week schedule handy will enable you to maximize the selection of your bye week replacement quarterback. If you draft Peyton Manning, you are probably planning to start him each and every week he doesn’t have a bye. Knowing which week he has off as well as the quarterbacks still available with the softest matchups in his bye week is a must.

4. In many instances you are going to need to insure your stud running back by also taking his backup later in the draft. If you take Adrian Peterson, for example, you have to take Chester Taylor later on in case AD goes on IR. This is known as “handcuffing” players and it is absolutely vital.

Another Mock Done

I realize it's early and the season doesn't start for another three months, but I've participated in several fantasy football industry expert mock drafts already this year. In fact, we just held our first one of the preseason over at FFChamps.com. I gathered some familiar faces from my days at Fanball.com along with some of my associates at FFChamps and we did a 10-team, 14-round mock on Monday night. The scoring system used was a standard 75 percent-touchdown and 25 percent-yardage with no PPR. The roster requirements were as follows: 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 2 wide receivers, 1 tight end, 1 kicker, 1 defense/special teams, and 6 bench players (any position).

I had the fourth overall pick and took Brian Westbrook, after LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, and Steven Jackson went 1-2-3. Here's how my entire draft went:

1. Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles
2. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
3. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers
4. Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks
5. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
7. LenDale White, RB, Titans
8. Tony Gonzalelz, TE, Chiefs
9. Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings
10. Jerry Porter, WR, Jaguars
11. Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos
12. Baltimore Ravens defense
13. Rob Bironas, K, Titans
14. Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Dolphins

FFChamps subscribers can view the entire mock draft by following this link.

Expert Mock Draft

Mock... yeah. Draft... yeah. Ing...yeah. Yeah... yeah!

I just wanted to let all of you know that I have organized the first fantasy football Expert Mock Draft of the preseason for FantasyFootballChamps.com and it will take place this upcoming Monday, June 9 at 9:30 pm ET. Those of you who are FFChamps subscribers will be able to follow along online live by going to the mock draft section of the site.

The other industry veterans who will be taking part in the mockery: John Tuvey, Jon Lopuch, Christian Peterson, Jason Powell, Mat Harrison, Tom Blomberg, Court Mann, Colin Pekruhn, and Joe Potenza. I'd like to invite all of you to stop by and watch the draft unfold, but in case you can't we'll have the results posted for subscribers at FFChamps immediately afterward.

Where to Pick McFadden

Most reasonable fantasy football pundits agree that Darren McFadden should be the first rookie selected in fantasy football drafts this summer. Heck, for what it's worth, the pollsters in FFLegend's unscientific survey say that he'll have the biggest impact amongst the rookie running backs. I completely agree. In fact, I probably have Run DMC ranked too high. At least the more I see other rankings around the industry, the more I believe that to be the case.

Will McFadden be the "next Adrian Peterson"? I doubt it, but what if he comes close? Or what if he is? Every year there is at least one rookie running back who makes a significant fantasy impact, and McFadden has all the skills to be that guy this season. So if he has at least a chance to be the next AD, why is 11th amongst running backs (his current ranking on my cheat sheet) too high? Because the mock drafts suggest he can be taken later.

A lot of people must be skeptical of the Raiders situation. I don't blame them one bit for that; after all, they have been one of the worst teams in football for several years now. Moreover, with Justin Fargas and Michael Bush around, their backfield is very crowded. To which I wonder: if McFadden is everything the scouts and draft experts made him out to be, shouldn't he transcend all of that?

Regardless, I took part in an industry "expert" mock draft on the Monday immediately following the NFL Draft back in April and made McFadden my second-round pick, 17th overall... a selection that raised a lot of eyebrows and probably made some chuckle. My other options at that point, however, were not as compelling in my mind as a guy who has the potential to be the "next big thing." The 16 players already gone by that point were: LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai, Ryan Grant, Marion Barber, Tom Brady, Frank Gore, Ronnie Brown, Marshawn Lynch, Larry Johnson, Randy Moss, Clinton Portis, Terrell Owens, and Braylon Edwards. Honestly, I didn't see another running back with McFadden's potential impact left on the board, and with Brady as my first round pick I needed to take a runner over, say, Reggie Wayne, because I would have been left without any feature backs to choose from by the third round.

In retrospect, I could have probably waited, though, because there's a good chance Darren would have slid to the third round. In fact, according to the Average Draft Position stats compiled from multiple sources at FantasyFootballChamps.com (my full-time gig) McFadden has been a fourth-round pick thus far in early mocks.

Thus, when the opportunity arose to do another industry "expert" mock draft this week, I accepted and wondered how late McFadden would go. I thought bout taking him with my third round pick after taking Westbrook and Brady with my first two selections, but figuring he'd slide, I opted for Steve Smith in the third round instead. The move paid off, because 10 minutes ago I spent my fourth-round selection on McFadden. Do I think that might be too low for him? Clearly, I do. However, if the consensus of the fantasy-football-playing public is that D-Mac is a fourth-round pick this year, so be it. It pays to wait.