Thursday, November 13, 2008

Doubting Thomas

As the Jets get set to take on the Patriots Thursday night in prime time I can't help but think that the hot streak that Thomas Jones has been on lately is about to come to an end.   Just as it was easy to see by looking at his schedule that Jones was going to have a productive period from Weeks 6-10, it is easy to anticipate lower numbers for at least the next two games.


Jones was someone I was touting as a buy low candidate prior to his recent stretch; I even tried in vain to acquire him in a trade in two leagues. Too bad I didn't because from Weeks 6-10 he exploded for eight touchdowns and is now tied for second amongst running backs with nine total touchdowns on the season. The nine scores matches his career high. He is also fifth in the NFL in rushing now with 750 yards. His cupcake-filled schedule is clearly to blame. During his recent torrid stretch he played against the 15th, 25th, 29th, 30th, and 32nd ranked run defenses in the NFL.  Any runner worth his salt would have put up big numbers.

However, tonight's game against the Patriots should be a different story.  The Patriots rank 12th against the run thanks in large part to Ronnie Brown's ridiculous 113-yard, four-touchdown effort against them back in Week 3. Outside of that game, the Patriots have not permitted any running back to top 100 yards or run for a touchdown against them this season.  In his last three games against New England, Jones has accumulated a total of 131 yards on 40 carries and has not reached the end zone. After getting stifled by the Patriots tonight, Jones goes on the road to face Albert Haynesworth and the Titans, who currently boast the eighth-ranked run defense and the No. 1 defense in the league in terms of points against.  I fully expect Jones to be held under 100 yards and out of the end zone in both games.

After the next two weeks his schedule loosens up a bit again, so fantasy owners could be in a position to "buy low" on him once again just prior to the fantasy playoffs.  So if you missed out on the chance to acquire him just prior to his recent tear, have some patience because you might get a second chance... assuming your league has a late trade deadline.

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