Palmer Doubter

I recently read in one of the many preseason NFL magazines that are currently spreading across your newsstand shelves that Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer is the most underrated player in the league. Um, what? They may as well have written that Kurt Warner was the most agile quarterback or Chad Pennington had the strongest throwing arm. In my mind, nothing could be further from the truth.

The fact is, in fantasy football circles, Palmer is very overrated. Not as overrated as his No. 1 receiver Chad Ochocinco, but overrated nonetheless. The vast majority of fantasy outlets I review still have Palmer rated as a borderline top-10 quarterback. Some actually have him just inside the top 10. And judging from the average draft position data from online mock drafts, the mouth-breathing fantasy football lemmings in this wonderful pastime of ours wholeheartedly agree. They must still think we're talking about the Carson Palmer from the 2004-07 era, the guy who averaged 4,001 yards and 29 touchdown passes a season. That guy was really good. He was a top-five fantasy quarterback. Unfortunately, that guy doesn't live here anymore.

Palmer no longer has two Pro-Bowl caliber wide receivers as he did then. Chad Johnson's productivity has disappeared faster than his real last name and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is now in Seattle, replaced by Laveranues Coles, who has never scored even eight times in a season and who has topped 1,000 yards just once in the last five years. Vintage Palmer also had a Pro-Bowl caliber running back, Rudi Johnson, to take the heat off him. Now he has a first-round bust, Cedric Benson, whose next full season of meaningful fantasy numbers will be his first.

Lastly and most significantly, the Palmer of two, three, four years ago also had a healthy right arm. What's that, you say? Palmer just told Fanhouse a couple weeks ago that his arm is 100 percent? Right. And that dude on the radio selling naming rights to stars really and truly owns the naming rights to all the heavenly bodies in the night-time sky. Call me crazy, but I just don't trust that Palmer is truly healthy. He might look good now running around in shorts throwing passes with no real pressure to speak of, but we'll see what happens when the hitting starts.

Palmer missed 12 games last year because the ulnar collateral ligament as well as a tendon had become partially detached in his throwing elbow. Some doctors told him he needed Tommy John surgery to repair the damage. Some others told him he could let it heal on its own. He listened to the latter and chose not to go under the knife. This can't end well, can it? I'm not wishing for Palmer's arm to snap off or anything. I have nothing against the guy. However, he has too many red flags to ignore. There is no chance he'll be on any of my fantasy teams in 2009...not when any throw could be his last of the season.

Johnson Beefing Up

Bengals running back Rudi Johnson was one of the biggest busts in fantasy football last year thanks in large part to a nagging hamstring injury that knocked him out of five games and seven starts. A year ago, Rudi was universally ranked amongst the top-10 running backs and was even in the top five on many lists. In fact, the magazine I used to publish, Fanball's Fantasy Football Weekly ranked him fourth at running back in the 2007 Annual Guide. Why so high? Johnson didn't carry the high-end expectations of guys like LaDainian Tomlinson or Steven Jackson, however, his consistency was amazing. From 2004 to 2006, Johnson rushed for exactly 12 touchdowns each season and amassed between 1,300 and 1,460 yards.

Most figured, entering last year, that you could easily pencil him in for a repeat. Then the hamstring injury struck and completely ruined his season, limiting his production to 497 yards and three touchdowns. Just thinking about it makes me want to throw up in my mouth a little.

The good news, however, is that 2008 is the perfect chance to buy low on Johnson because he still has the ability to be a top-10 fantasy back. Currently, Rudi is nowhere near the top-10 running backs on my cheat sheet, but that is already starting to change. The news out of Cincy so far this offseason is promising. First, the Bengals did not take a running back in the draft and passed on the opportunity to sign free agent Shaun Alexander. Secondly, Johnson showed up to Bengals voluntary workouts yesterday completely healed from the hammy injury and had bulked up his upper body via weight-lifting from 212 to 225 pounds, his ideal playing weight. "Last year when I got hurt, it was definitely frustrating for me," Johnson told the Cincinnati Enquirer. "I wanted to come back stronger, more powerful than I've ever been."

This is the kind of offseason news fantasy players love. As such, you can expect to see Rudi continue to climb in my rankings. I'm still a little skeptical given all the chaos in Cincy (see: Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh) but Johnson is still only 28 years old (he turns 29 in October) so he probably has one or two good years left. There's no reason he can't employ his muscled-up frame to net him another 10-touchdown season... at least as long as he stays healthy.