Palmer Doubter

I recently read in one of the many preseason NFL magazines that are currently spreading across your newsstand shelves that Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer is the most underrated player in the league. Um, what? They may as well have written that Kurt Warner was the most agile quarterback or Chad Pennington had the strongest throwing arm. In my mind, nothing could be further from the truth.

The fact is, in fantasy football circles, Palmer is very overrated. Not as overrated as his No. 1 receiver Chad Ochocinco, but overrated nonetheless. The vast majority of fantasy outlets I review still have Palmer rated as a borderline top-10 quarterback. Some actually have him just inside the top 10. And judging from the average draft position data from online mock drafts, the mouth-breathing fantasy football lemmings in this wonderful pastime of ours wholeheartedly agree. They must still think we're talking about the Carson Palmer from the 2004-07 era, the guy who averaged 4,001 yards and 29 touchdown passes a season. That guy was really good. He was a top-five fantasy quarterback. Unfortunately, that guy doesn't live here anymore.

Palmer no longer has two Pro-Bowl caliber wide receivers as he did then. Chad Johnson's productivity has disappeared faster than his real last name and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is now in Seattle, replaced by Laveranues Coles, who has never scored even eight times in a season and who has topped 1,000 yards just once in the last five years. Vintage Palmer also had a Pro-Bowl caliber running back, Rudi Johnson, to take the heat off him. Now he has a first-round bust, Cedric Benson, whose next full season of meaningful fantasy numbers will be his first.

Lastly and most significantly, the Palmer of two, three, four years ago also had a healthy right arm. What's that, you say? Palmer just told Fanhouse a couple weeks ago that his arm is 100 percent? Right. And that dude on the radio selling naming rights to stars really and truly owns the naming rights to all the heavenly bodies in the night-time sky. Call me crazy, but I just don't trust that Palmer is truly healthy. He might look good now running around in shorts throwing passes with no real pressure to speak of, but we'll see what happens when the hitting starts.

Palmer missed 12 games last year because the ulnar collateral ligament as well as a tendon had become partially detached in his throwing elbow. Some doctors told him he needed Tommy John surgery to repair the damage. Some others told him he could let it heal on its own. He listened to the latter and chose not to go under the knife. This can't end well, can it? I'm not wishing for Palmer's arm to snap off or anything. I have nothing against the guy. However, he has too many red flags to ignore. There is no chance he'll be on any of my fantasy teams in 2009...not when any throw could be his last of the season.

Bad News Benson

So Cedric Benson was arrested and charged with boating while intoxicated over the weekend in Texas. Stay hot, Ced. You're just making this too easy for the Bears.

I mean, Benson was already on wafer-thin ice with the team after firmly establishing himself as a bust for three years. The Bears impatience with the fourth overall pick in the 2005 draft was never more evident than during the first day of the NFL Draft last month when they spent their second round pick on Tulane running back Matt Forte rather than going after one of the highly touted quarterbacks that were still on the board.

At 6-2 and 222 pounds, Forte has the size to run between the tackles and take punishment, but he also has the speed to bounce it outside. He can pile up the yards--he finished second in the nation with 2,127 rushing yards last season--and he can pound it in from the stripe--he also scored 23 touchdowns in 2007. In other words, he's the three-down back the Bears thought they were getting when they spent their first round pick on Benson three years ago. While Benson was busy telling anyone who'd listen that he wasn't drunk and didn't resist arrest, Forte was busy making a strong first impression during the Bears rookie three-day minicamp this weekend.

How fitting.

Make no mistake, the Bears plan is to have Forte be their feature back this season with "the other" Adrian Peterson and Garrett Wolfe on background vocals. As for Benson, he might find himself out of a job on June 1. The good thing about all of this for fantasy owners is that the Bears probably won't let the uncertainty of the situation with Benson and their running back depth chart linger into training camp. If Benson is let go and Forte assumes the starting gig, I could see moving him inside the top-25 running backs on my cheat sheets.