Ranking Mo-Jo

Let me say first of all that I am a Maurice Jones-Drew fan. I think he is a great running back and I even had him on one of my teams last season. When Fred Taylor was let go by the Jaguars this offseason, the move opened the door for Mo-Jo to become the Jaguars feature back, free from the nearly 50/50 timeshare he had going with Taylor. In light of the transaction, I moved Jones-Drew up in my rankings from somewhere in the early to mid teens to safely inside the top 10. He ultimately settled in at the seventh spot for performance leagues based on my 2009 projections for him: between 1,150 and 1,200 yards rushing, another 550 or so yards receiving, and 14 touchdowns. The receiving yardage and touchdowns would be on par with what he did last year; the rushing yardage would be a career high by more than 200 yards.

It seemed like a fair projection given that he stands to get additional carries each week. Here's some math: if we assume that Jones-Drew gets 50 percent more carries on average each week this year than last year -- an increase from 12 to 18 carries per game, that would put him at 293 carries. By the way, only five running backs had more carries than that last year so that's a pretty generous assumption for a guy who is 5-7 and just over 200 pounds. Now let's assume he averages 4.0 yards per carry. Why only 4.0? Simple, because his yards-per-carry average has gone down each season, from 5.7 to 4.6 to 4.2 last year. The more carries he gets, the lower his average. This trend also plays out within games, as Mo-Jo averaged just 3.6 yards per carry in the fourth quarter of games last year. Multiplying 293 by four gets you 1,172 yards. Hence my prediction.

When tallying up what that gets you in terms of fantasy points in a standard league, those stats still leave Jones-Drew behind Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Matt Forte, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton in my rankings. Apparently it has also made me the target of those who suggest I am being blasphemous, namely two of the co-hosts (Paul Charchian and Christian Peterson) from the "Fantasy Football Weekly" radio program that I do. They both have Mo-Jo No. 1 overall regardless of scoring system. Now, in a PPR league, I could see taking either Jones-Drew or Forte No. 1. But not in any other type of league.

Taking a quick glance around the industry, it looks as though there is a general consensus that I have Jones-Drew a bit low. I have yet to see another outlet that has him No. 1, but maybe I'm just not looking hard enough. I know NFL.com has him 4, Fanball.com has him 4, Lindy's has him 2, ESPN.com, Pro Football Weekly, and Yahoo! all have him 3, and The Sporting News has him 7 just like me.

I feel as though Mo-Jo is an en vogue top-three this year because he's "different." He's the cool pick because it implies owners are thinking outside the box a little. Peterson seems too obvious...but maybe that's for good reason.

People are overreacting to the departure of Taylor if you ask me. Jones-Drew has never been a feature back before and has never had 200 carries or 1,000 yards. I know he is strong and tough, but he's still just 5-7, 200-ish pounds. I'm not totally convinced he's going to hold up to the pounding and violence of perhaps the most brutal position in all of sports. Lastly, I would not be at all surprised if the Jaguars were hesitant to hand him a full 20-25 carry per game workload. They've always divvied up carries in the past; why stop now? Rookie Rashad Jennings, at 6-1 and 234 pounds, seems especially built for use in short yardage and at the goal line. Might he vulture several touchdowns? I would not be the least bit shocked if he does.

I'll say it again: I like Jones-Drew. Great player. He just doesn't belong atop your fantasy football rankings. I'll take the guy who's going to rush for 2,000 yards one of these years instead. But I'm sure the debate has only just begun.

Who Comes After Peterson?

Whether you call him AD, AP, or Adrian Peterson, what most people are now calling the Vikings Pro Bowl running back is the best player in fantasy football. That is, unless you play in a point-per-reception or touchdown-only league, in which case Peterson remains merely "one of the best." However, most leagues are not built around PPR rules and the basic TD-only league is fading quickly in popularity, meaning that in most cases the NFL's current leading rusher is numero uno.

Of course, for some of us who have been hailing Peterson as the best player in fantasy football since last season, this comes as no surprise. I know there are still some people who don't buy into him as the No. 1 overall player (and I am also sure some of them will comment on this post) but my mind is made up as to who will sit atop my fantasy football rankings again next year.

The question for me is: who is AP? As in: who comes after Peterson in the rankings heading into next season? For some of you in keeper leagues and dynasty leagues and others who are hopelessly behind in re-draft leagues, it is not too early to start looking ahead in this way. We had this discussion of who comes after Peterson during our Fantasy Football Weekly radio program this past Saturday and we did not come up with a clear-cut answer. Michael Turner, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Matt Forte were suggested. A compelling argument could be made for Brandon Jacobs as well. What about Clinton Portis? Joseph Addai?

Compelling arguments could be made against the aforementioned Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook. They were universally ranked with Peterson in the top three on most people's lists heading into the 2008 season; however, both have had injury issues this season and both turn 30 years old (the dreaded age for running backs) this upcoming offseason.

I would suggest with a great deal of certainty that the player who comes after Peterson on my list next summer will not be a quarterback or wide receiver. There is no clear-cut-far-and-away No. 1 player at either of those two positions and therefore no reason to reach for one at the top of the first round.

So, what say you? Fast forward to the summer of 2009 and tell me who you think will be the consensus top two, or three, or four, or five players in fantasy drafts. I'd love to hear some opinions.