Who Comes After Peterson?

Whether you call him AD, AP, or Adrian Peterson, what most people are now calling the Vikings Pro Bowl running back is the best player in fantasy football. That is, unless you play in a point-per-reception or touchdown-only league, in which case Peterson remains merely "one of the best." However, most leagues are not built around PPR rules and the basic TD-only league is fading quickly in popularity, meaning that in most cases the NFL's current leading rusher is numero uno.

Of course, for some of us who have been hailing Peterson as the best player in fantasy football since last season, this comes as no surprise. I know there are still some people who don't buy into him as the No. 1 overall player (and I am also sure some of them will comment on this post) but my mind is made up as to who will sit atop my fantasy football rankings again next year.

The question for me is: who is AP? As in: who comes after Peterson in the rankings heading into next season? For some of you in keeper leagues and dynasty leagues and others who are hopelessly behind in re-draft leagues, it is not too early to start looking ahead in this way. We had this discussion of who comes after Peterson during our Fantasy Football Weekly radio program this past Saturday and we did not come up with a clear-cut answer. Michael Turner, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Matt Forte were suggested. A compelling argument could be made for Brandon Jacobs as well. What about Clinton Portis? Joseph Addai?

Compelling arguments could be made against the aforementioned Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook. They were universally ranked with Peterson in the top three on most people's lists heading into the 2008 season; however, both have had injury issues this season and both turn 30 years old (the dreaded age for running backs) this upcoming offseason.

I would suggest with a great deal of certainty that the player who comes after Peterson on my list next summer will not be a quarterback or wide receiver. There is no clear-cut-far-and-away No. 1 player at either of those two positions and therefore no reason to reach for one at the top of the first round.

So, what say you? Fast forward to the summer of 2009 and tell me who you think will be the consensus top two, or three, or four, or five players in fantasy drafts. I'd love to hear some opinions.

Curse of the Top Scorer

As I was doing some research today for an article at FFChamps.com I came across a rather troubling revelation. I was writing a little something about Packers kicker Mason Crosby because he led the NFL in scoring last year with 141 points and I cited the fact that no kicker has led the league in scoring in consecutive seasons since the Patriots John Smith did so in 1979 and 1980. I annually cite this stat for the reigning scoring champ amongst kickers as a reason to not expect a great follow up season. What’s more, kickers rarely come close to their league-leading total for an encore; just three of them since Smith’s repeat have even come within 20 points of their league-leading total the following year. However, I knew that stat already too because, you know, I’m kind of a fantasy stat geek like that.

What I did not realize, though, was just how pervasive the curse of the leading scorer was. It’s almost as lethal as the Madden or Sports Illustrated cover jinxes. Note I said “leading scorer,” not “leading scorer among kickers.” Of the last eight scoring champs (i.e. all of them this millennium) five are no longer in the NFL. The only three active players are the last two—Crosby and LaDainian Tomlsinon—and Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri, who led the league in 2004 with 141 points as a member of the Patriots. The other players to lead the NFL in scoring since 2000 are: Shaun Alexander (2005) who has yet to find a team willing to sign him since being cut by the Seahawks, Jeff Wilkins (2003) who retired this offseason, Priest Holmes (2002), and Marshall Faulk (2000 and 2001). Go back a bit further and you have Mike Vanderjagt (1999), Gary Anderson (1998), and Mike Hollis (1997), none of whom have an NFL job.

Now, this doesn’t necessarily worry me as far as Crosby is concerned since he is still a few months shy of his 24th birthday and the good kickers have been known to stick around until their late 30s and early 40s. I’m not saying I think Crosby will repeat as scoring champ this season, with or without Brett Favre, because by all accounts that isn’t humanly possible. However, my findings add more fuel to my anti-Tomlinson malaise. I have no doubt that Tomlinson deserves to be one of the first two players selected in fantasy drafts for non-keeper and non-dynasty leagues this year. That said, he turned 29 a few weeks ago, had a knee injury during the postseason that would have forced him to miss an estimated six games had it occurred during the regular season, and spoke to ESPN earlier this offseason about the fact that he won’t be playing five years from now because he wants to go out on top. Running backs that produce past the age of 30 are rare and the level of average output declines precipitously for each additional year after that.

Thus, even in the best scenario I would have thought that L.T. only had three good seasons left in the tank. The jinx of the scoring leader suggests, however, that his exit from the game might come even sooner and there is no hope for another season like the one he had two years ago. I hope that's wrong, but who am I to argue with such overwhelming evidence?