Another Mock Done

I realize it's early and the season doesn't start for another three months, but I've participated in several fantasy football industry expert mock drafts already this year. In fact, we just held our first one of the preseason over at FFChamps.com. I gathered some familiar faces from my days at Fanball.com along with some of my associates at FFChamps and we did a 10-team, 14-round mock on Monday night. The scoring system used was a standard 75 percent-touchdown and 25 percent-yardage with no PPR. The roster requirements were as follows: 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 2 wide receivers, 1 tight end, 1 kicker, 1 defense/special teams, and 6 bench players (any position).

I had the fourth overall pick and took Brian Westbrook, after LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, and Steven Jackson went 1-2-3. Here's how my entire draft went:

1. Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles
2. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
3. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers
4. Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks
5. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
7. LenDale White, RB, Titans
8. Tony Gonzalelz, TE, Chiefs
9. Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings
10. Jerry Porter, WR, Jaguars
11. Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos
12. Baltimore Ravens defense
13. Rob Bironas, K, Titans
14. Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Dolphins

FFChamps subscribers can view the entire mock draft by following this link.

Expert Mock Draft

Mock... yeah. Draft... yeah. Ing...yeah. Yeah... yeah!

I just wanted to let all of you know that I have organized the first fantasy football Expert Mock Draft of the preseason for FantasyFootballChamps.com and it will take place this upcoming Monday, June 9 at 9:30 pm ET. Those of you who are FFChamps subscribers will be able to follow along online live by going to the mock draft section of the site.

The other industry veterans who will be taking part in the mockery: John Tuvey, Jon Lopuch, Christian Peterson, Jason Powell, Mat Harrison, Tom Blomberg, Court Mann, Colin Pekruhn, and Joe Potenza. I'd like to invite all of you to stop by and watch the draft unfold, but in case you can't we'll have the results posted for subscribers at FFChamps immediately afterward.

Where to Pick McFadden

Most reasonable fantasy football pundits agree that Darren McFadden should be the first rookie selected in fantasy football drafts this summer. Heck, for what it's worth, the pollsters in FFLegend's unscientific survey say that he'll have the biggest impact amongst the rookie running backs. I completely agree. In fact, I probably have Run DMC ranked too high. At least the more I see other rankings around the industry, the more I believe that to be the case.

Will McFadden be the "next Adrian Peterson"? I doubt it, but what if he comes close? Or what if he is? Every year there is at least one rookie running back who makes a significant fantasy impact, and McFadden has all the skills to be that guy this season. So if he has at least a chance to be the next AD, why is 11th amongst running backs (his current ranking on my cheat sheet) too high? Because the mock drafts suggest he can be taken later.

A lot of people must be skeptical of the Raiders situation. I don't blame them one bit for that; after all, they have been one of the worst teams in football for several years now. Moreover, with Justin Fargas and Michael Bush around, their backfield is very crowded. To which I wonder: if McFadden is everything the scouts and draft experts made him out to be, shouldn't he transcend all of that?

Regardless, I took part in an industry "expert" mock draft on the Monday immediately following the NFL Draft back in April and made McFadden my second-round pick, 17th overall... a selection that raised a lot of eyebrows and probably made some chuckle. My other options at that point, however, were not as compelling in my mind as a guy who has the potential to be the "next big thing." The 16 players already gone by that point were: LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai, Ryan Grant, Marion Barber, Tom Brady, Frank Gore, Ronnie Brown, Marshawn Lynch, Larry Johnson, Randy Moss, Clinton Portis, Terrell Owens, and Braylon Edwards. Honestly, I didn't see another running back with McFadden's potential impact left on the board, and with Brady as my first round pick I needed to take a runner over, say, Reggie Wayne, because I would have been left without any feature backs to choose from by the third round.

In retrospect, I could have probably waited, though, because there's a good chance Darren would have slid to the third round. In fact, according to the Average Draft Position stats compiled from multiple sources at FantasyFootballChamps.com (my full-time gig) McFadden has been a fourth-round pick thus far in early mocks.

Thus, when the opportunity arose to do another industry "expert" mock draft this week, I accepted and wondered how late McFadden would go. I thought bout taking him with my third round pick after taking Westbrook and Brady with my first two selections, but figuring he'd slide, I opted for Steve Smith in the third round instead. The move paid off, because 10 minutes ago I spent my fourth-round selection on McFadden. Do I think that might be too low for him? Clearly, I do. However, if the consensus of the fantasy-football-playing public is that D-Mac is a fourth-round pick this year, so be it. It pays to wait.

Young Gets First Shot

The Broncos' release of Travis Henry on Monday means that second-year sprinter Selvin Young is entrenched as the Broncos starting running back... for now. Simply put, no Broncos' back job is ever safe as long as Mike Shanahan is head coach. That being said, Young sits atop the depth chart and should be unchallenged for the role now that Henry has been shown the door.

Young likely saw Monday's dismissal of last year's starter coming last week when he told the Denver Post that he thought he could rush for 2,000 yards this season. "The key to that to me is staying healthy," Young told the Post. "Everything else, I believe in wholeheartedly. It's not like I said something to try to get a laugh or to smile or to get people to pay attention to me. It's something I believe is in me." Many a running back has had the temerity to forecast a 2,000-yard season for himself, only to fail miserably. The most recent example was Frank Gore prior to last season's 1,102-yard output. A little math tells us that if you multiply Young's gaudy 5.2 yards-per-carry average from last year over a full season of, say, 350-plus carries...and, carry the one, you get close to 2,000 yards. Of course, only five running backs have cracked the 2,000-yard barrier and, call me crazy, but I'll take the Vikings Adrian Peterson over Young in that prop bet any day of the week.

The main point for fantasy owners in all of this is that the job is Young's to lose and, say what you will about his meddling, but the Broncos have a long history under Shanahan of producing successful fantasy backs. Go ahead and move Young up your cheat sheet to the brink of the top 30 and be prepared to keep moving him up if the Broncos' training camp competition cements his status as their feature back.

I'm rather skeptical that it will, though. The Broncos really like rookie Ryan Torain and brought in Michael Pittman last week in all likelihood to serve as their third-down back. Andre Hall is also in the mix for touches if he makes the team ahead of Pittman. What's more, Young's size has been a bit of a question mark and Shanahan may opt to give someone other than Selvin carries in the red zone. Young packed on five-to-10 pounds of additional muscle this offseason, but it remains to be seen whether it's enough.

As for Henry, his run as a significant fantasy football player is over and his career may be too. T-Hen turns 30 in October, the age when most running backs jump the shark in terms of productivity and begin breaking down. Henry, however, has played a full 16-game season just once in his seven-year career and nagging injuries hampered him after a quick start last season. Heck, he has a hamstring injury right now and was staying away from the Broncos' OTA's, a move that appears to have been the last straw for him in Denver. Add in the fact that he is one positive drug test away from a one-year NFL suspension, and the risk is just too high for all but the most desperate of teams to sign him. Now add in the fact that Henry successfully appealed a positive marijuana test last October, two months after it was disclosed in court that he had fathered nine children by nine different mothers in six years, and the inevitable PR nightmare won't be worth the hassle for any team.

Who's the Barber Here?

With the NFL Draft behind us, we now have a little better idea of what the fantasy football rankings look like as we head into mini-camp season. Earlier in the week, I shared some initial musings in the wake of the draft, but some other storylines are emerging that will have ramifications for our cheat sheets as training camps and preseason games roll around. I’ll begin with the new running back situation in Dallas. The Cowboys drafting of Felix Jones serves two purposes: the one the Dallas brass is going with for now is that he provides a perfect complement to the talents of Marion Barber III and that the 1-2 punch should make them more of a Super Bowl contender. Of course, Jones is used to being “the other back,” having played in the shadow of Darren McFadden at Arkansas.

The other reason for drafting Jones—the one that’s not being talked about so much—is that Jones is the heir apparent to Barber should the Cowboys be unable to reach a long-term accord with the Pro Bowl back. Barber is eligible for unrestricted free agency after this season and the Cowboys reported offer of five years and somewhere in the neighborhood of $30-million was not accepted by Barber and his agent Drew Rosenhaus. Rumors that Rosenhaus was seeking LaDainian Tomlinson-type money for his client have since been denied. You needn’t read too closely between the lines to glean that the Jerry Jones Empire considers Jones more than just a complementary back and great kickoff-return man. They view him as a back capable of playing every down and giving them another home run threat. A veiled comparison to Emmitt Smith was even made in a news conference earlier this week.

For fantasy owners, however, the selection of Jones by the ‘Boys muddles Barber’s value considerably. After Julius Jones departed to Seattle via free agency, Barber appeared to be in line for his first full season of full-time duty—the prospect of which vaulted him up fantasy football cheat sheets well into the top 10 at running back. Having a player of Jones’ ability in the same backfield makes one wonder how much of a chance Barber will be afforded to carry a regular feature back load. The guess here is that MBIII will be the Man early on, but as the season progresses the rookie will be given more and more touches. Until we know more about how the two of them will be splitting time, Barber will remain on the outside of my top-15 running backs looking in.

NFL Draft - Fantasy Fallout

The NFL Draft is the unofficial start of the fantasy football season. It's simple: once the draft is over we know which players are going to be on which teams, with the exception of June 1st cuts, injuries, holdouts, and other misc. roster meneuverings. I know of at least one league that is holding their draft Sunday night following the completion of the NFL draft...now THAT'S a league that can't wait to get started. I would never advocate holding a draft so early; for me, the ideal time is late August. I'm participating in an industry expert mock draft on Monday night; however, we are not playing the league out. I've been taking in a majority of the televised proceedings from Radio City Music Hall and I've started formulating some initial reactions from a fantasy football perspective...

The Falcons selection of Matt Ryan with the third overall pick didn't mesh with my final mock draft...I changed my mind from Ryan (whom I had tabbed going to the Falcons in previous mocks published at FFChamps.com) to Glenn Dorsey at the last moment after learning of the groundswell of support for the LSU defensive tackle. I figured that just because I thought they should take Ryan didn't mean they would. As it turns out, the pick of Ryan over Dorsey was a close call in the Falcons war room. Overall, I believe Dorsey has the higher upside, but Ryan provides the Falcons a new face of the franchise, a leader, and a legit marquee quarterback...something they desperately needed in the wake of the Michael Vick era. From a fantasy standpoint, Ryan, like all rookie quarterbacks, should not be counted on in redraft leagues. Not even as a backup. He will need a year or two. For now, the Falcons offense will run through Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood.

The Dolphins selection of Jake Long with the first pick in the draft was a foregone conclusion since they had already agreed to terms with him on a deal prior to the big weekend function. The pick that raised some eyebrows, however, was the second-round selection of Long's teammate Chad Henne, the quarterback who's blindside he protected at University of Michigan. I was a little surprised that Henne lasted as long as he did, but it could pay off for him because I believe he'll push hard by the second half of the 2008 season to be the starter in Miami. Remember, the guy currently atop the depth chart, John Beck, was brought in by the previous administration. Henne is a Bill Parcells pick and that will make a lot of difference when Beck struggles, as he inevitably will.

When the Panthers released running back Deshaun Foster at the end of the season, those of us fantasy owners with DeAngelo Williams rejoiced at the thought of him finally getting the job to himself. Williams, their first-round pick in 2006, had shown far more explosiveness than Foster ever had, yet had been relegated to splitting carries. Draft day was a buzzkill for Williams owners, as the Panthers spent their first pick on running back Jonathan Stewart from Oregon, a Jamal Lewis-esque bulldozer with good wheels. At a minimum, a running back committee in the offing again, but Stewart may just earn the starting job even though he'll enter training camp as the backup to Williams. On a positive note, the Panthers addressed their need for offensive line help with the selection of Jeff Otah out of Pittsburgh. They had to give up next year's first-round pick to get him, but if he is as good as advertised, the move will have been worth it. With Stewart and Williams in the backfield and Steve Smith and newcomer D.J. Hackett out wide, the Panthers have numerous weapons. But none of it will matter much if Jake Delhomme doesn't come back all the way from Tommy John surgery on his elbow. Fantasy owners really need to keep an eye on Panthers camp this summer for Delhomme updates and to see if Stewart wins the running back job outright.

Prior to my final mock draft, I had the Raiders selecting someone other than Darren McFadden. I figured they had enough backs on the roster and had myriad other glaring needs. Heck, they had just re-signed Justin Fargas, a 1,000-yard rusher last year, and had an impressive youngster in Michael Bush waiting in the wings. However, I ultimately came to my senses, disregarded Lane Kiffen's quip that running back wasn't an area of need, and realized that owner Al Davis would not be able to resist a player of Run DMC's spectacular ability. McFadden gives the Raiders an immediate offensive presence and will provide quarterback JaMarcus Russell, last year's number one overall pick, with a heckuva nice security blanket. Opposing defenses will need to key on stopping McFadden, which should open things up for Russell in the passing game. If wideout Javon Walker is healthy (a substantial if to be sure) the Raiders could have a surprising number of fantasy contributors.