Where to Pick McFadden

Most reasonable fantasy football pundits agree that Darren McFadden should be the first rookie selected in fantasy football drafts this summer. Heck, for what it's worth, the pollsters in FFLegend's unscientific survey say that he'll have the biggest impact amongst the rookie running backs. I completely agree. In fact, I probably have Run DMC ranked too high. At least the more I see other rankings around the industry, the more I believe that to be the case.

Will McFadden be the "next Adrian Peterson"? I doubt it, but what if he comes close? Or what if he is? Every year there is at least one rookie running back who makes a significant fantasy impact, and McFadden has all the skills to be that guy this season. So if he has at least a chance to be the next AD, why is 11th amongst running backs (his current ranking on my cheat sheet) too high? Because the mock drafts suggest he can be taken later.

A lot of people must be skeptical of the Raiders situation. I don't blame them one bit for that; after all, they have been one of the worst teams in football for several years now. Moreover, with Justin Fargas and Michael Bush around, their backfield is very crowded. To which I wonder: if McFadden is everything the scouts and draft experts made him out to be, shouldn't he transcend all of that?

Regardless, I took part in an industry "expert" mock draft on the Monday immediately following the NFL Draft back in April and made McFadden my second-round pick, 17th overall... a selection that raised a lot of eyebrows and probably made some chuckle. My other options at that point, however, were not as compelling in my mind as a guy who has the potential to be the "next big thing." The 16 players already gone by that point were: LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai, Ryan Grant, Marion Barber, Tom Brady, Frank Gore, Ronnie Brown, Marshawn Lynch, Larry Johnson, Randy Moss, Clinton Portis, Terrell Owens, and Braylon Edwards. Honestly, I didn't see another running back with McFadden's potential impact left on the board, and with Brady as my first round pick I needed to take a runner over, say, Reggie Wayne, because I would have been left without any feature backs to choose from by the third round.

In retrospect, I could have probably waited, though, because there's a good chance Darren would have slid to the third round. In fact, according to the Average Draft Position stats compiled from multiple sources at FantasyFootballChamps.com (my full-time gig) McFadden has been a fourth-round pick thus far in early mocks.

Thus, when the opportunity arose to do another industry "expert" mock draft this week, I accepted and wondered how late McFadden would go. I thought bout taking him with my third round pick after taking Westbrook and Brady with my first two selections, but figuring he'd slide, I opted for Steve Smith in the third round instead. The move paid off, because 10 minutes ago I spent my fourth-round selection on McFadden. Do I think that might be too low for him? Clearly, I do. However, if the consensus of the fantasy-football-playing public is that D-Mac is a fourth-round pick this year, so be it. It pays to wait.

NFL Draft - Fantasy Fallout

The NFL Draft is the unofficial start of the fantasy football season. It's simple: once the draft is over we know which players are going to be on which teams, with the exception of June 1st cuts, injuries, holdouts, and other misc. roster meneuverings. I know of at least one league that is holding their draft Sunday night following the completion of the NFL draft...now THAT'S a league that can't wait to get started. I would never advocate holding a draft so early; for me, the ideal time is late August. I'm participating in an industry expert mock draft on Monday night; however, we are not playing the league out. I've been taking in a majority of the televised proceedings from Radio City Music Hall and I've started formulating some initial reactions from a fantasy football perspective...

The Falcons selection of Matt Ryan with the third overall pick didn't mesh with my final mock draft...I changed my mind from Ryan (whom I had tabbed going to the Falcons in previous mocks published at FFChamps.com) to Glenn Dorsey at the last moment after learning of the groundswell of support for the LSU defensive tackle. I figured that just because I thought they should take Ryan didn't mean they would. As it turns out, the pick of Ryan over Dorsey was a close call in the Falcons war room. Overall, I believe Dorsey has the higher upside, but Ryan provides the Falcons a new face of the franchise, a leader, and a legit marquee quarterback...something they desperately needed in the wake of the Michael Vick era. From a fantasy standpoint, Ryan, like all rookie quarterbacks, should not be counted on in redraft leagues. Not even as a backup. He will need a year or two. For now, the Falcons offense will run through Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood.

The Dolphins selection of Jake Long with the first pick in the draft was a foregone conclusion since they had already agreed to terms with him on a deal prior to the big weekend function. The pick that raised some eyebrows, however, was the second-round selection of Long's teammate Chad Henne, the quarterback who's blindside he protected at University of Michigan. I was a little surprised that Henne lasted as long as he did, but it could pay off for him because I believe he'll push hard by the second half of the 2008 season to be the starter in Miami. Remember, the guy currently atop the depth chart, John Beck, was brought in by the previous administration. Henne is a Bill Parcells pick and that will make a lot of difference when Beck struggles, as he inevitably will.

When the Panthers released running back Deshaun Foster at the end of the season, those of us fantasy owners with DeAngelo Williams rejoiced at the thought of him finally getting the job to himself. Williams, their first-round pick in 2006, had shown far more explosiveness than Foster ever had, yet had been relegated to splitting carries. Draft day was a buzzkill for Williams owners, as the Panthers spent their first pick on running back Jonathan Stewart from Oregon, a Jamal Lewis-esque bulldozer with good wheels. At a minimum, a running back committee in the offing again, but Stewart may just earn the starting job even though he'll enter training camp as the backup to Williams. On a positive note, the Panthers addressed their need for offensive line help with the selection of Jeff Otah out of Pittsburgh. They had to give up next year's first-round pick to get him, but if he is as good as advertised, the move will have been worth it. With Stewart and Williams in the backfield and Steve Smith and newcomer D.J. Hackett out wide, the Panthers have numerous weapons. But none of it will matter much if Jake Delhomme doesn't come back all the way from Tommy John surgery on his elbow. Fantasy owners really need to keep an eye on Panthers camp this summer for Delhomme updates and to see if Stewart wins the running back job outright.

Prior to my final mock draft, I had the Raiders selecting someone other than Darren McFadden. I figured they had enough backs on the roster and had myriad other glaring needs. Heck, they had just re-signed Justin Fargas, a 1,000-yard rusher last year, and had an impressive youngster in Michael Bush waiting in the wings. However, I ultimately came to my senses, disregarded Lane Kiffen's quip that running back wasn't an area of need, and realized that owner Al Davis would not be able to resist a player of Run DMC's spectacular ability. McFadden gives the Raiders an immediate offensive presence and will provide quarterback JaMarcus Russell, last year's number one overall pick, with a heckuva nice security blanket. Opposing defenses will need to key on stopping McFadden, which should open things up for Russell in the passing game. If wideout Javon Walker is healthy (a substantial if to be sure) the Raiders could have a surprising number of fantasy contributors.