Industry Expert Draft Review

I have been on the lookout for some industry expert leagues to get into this season to represent FFChamps.com and FFLegend.com. I've found a couple of pretty good ones, and recently I took part in my first industry experts league draft of the year. I am competing in this particular league against 11 other fantasy football outlets, including pros from USA Today, CBS Sportsline, Pro Football Weekly, FFIndepth.com (the organizer of the league) and many others.

This league uses the same rules as the World Championship of Fantasy Football, most notably it's a point-per-reception (PPR) league. Our lineup consists of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker, one team defense, and a flex position player (WR, TE, or RB).

I had the fifth overall pick, so after Maurice Jones-Drew went No. 1 (mistake!), Adrian Peterson went second, and Matt Forte went third, I was sitting on either Larry Fitzgerald Jr. or Andre Johnson with my pick. Remember, in PPR leagues like this, the popular strategy of taking a running back in the first round does not always apply. Well, as fate would have it, Fitz went No. 4 to PFW so I grabbed Johnson. (Yes, Beavis, that's what I said).

I employed the "do the opposite" strategy and ended up with a team I like a lot, including Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Peyton Manning with my first three picks, and three 1,000-yard rushers (Ryan Grant, Derrick Ward, and Thomas Jones) in my backfield.

For those of you unfamiliar with the "opposite" draft strategy, I invite you to check out the Fantasy Football University class on Fantasy Football Terminology at FFChamps.com. It's free to non-subscribers, like all of the FFU classes.

Here's how my team turned out, ordered by round:

1. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
2. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers
3. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
4. Ryan Grant, RB, Packers
5. Derrick Ward, RB, Buccaneers
6. Thomas Jones, RB, Jets
7. Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings
8. John Carlson, TE, Seahawks
9. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings
10. Eli Manning, QB, Giants
11. Minnesota Vikings Defense
12. Justin Gage, WR, Titans
13. Earnest Graham, RB, Buccaneers
14. Kevin Boss, TE, Giants
15. James Davis, RB, Browns
16. Jason Elam, K, Falcons
17. Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars
18. Ryan Longwell, K, Vikings

According to the FFChamps C3 cheat sheet for PPR leagues, I have the No. 2 quarterback, No. 2 and No. 6 wide receivers, No. 2 kicker, No. 2 team defense, and the No. 6 tight end. Waiting on running backs hurt my depth there, but I still wound up with three top-20 backs. I like my sleepers (Justin Gage and Kevin Boss) and I like Eli Manning's matchup (vs. Saints) on Peyton's bye week. Moreover, my two rookie running backs could surprise and I handcuffed Graham to Ward. I also don't have any bye week issues.

Here is my Week 1 Lineup:
QB - Peyton Manning
RB - Derrick Ward
RB - Ryan Grant
WR - Andre Johnson
WR - Greg Jennings
WR - Bernard Berrian
Flex - Thomas Jones
TE - John Carlson
K - Jason Elam
D - Vikings

All in all, I would say the draft was a success. Let me know what you think of my team.

NFL Strength of Schedule

I always find NFL strength of schedule analysis to be a bit overrated because it is based solely on last year's winning percentages and does not account for the changes made since via free agency and the draft. Nor does it account for injuries. Case in point: does anyone think the Patriots will be worse this year than they were last year when Tom Brady essentially missed the entire season? Nevertheless, looking at the strength of schedule can give one an approximate idea of how soft or hard a given team's schedule is at a glance. It's entertaining and good water cooler fodder. To that end, here is a look at this year's strength of schedule ranked from toughest to easiest:

(Note: click on the image to see a larger version of the table)

In terms of its usefulness for fantasy football purposes, the strength of schedule purely based on winning percentages from last year has a limited application. It is far better to analyze how opposing defenses fared against the run and against the pass and then break those stats down further into yardage and touchdowns to determine how that translates into points in your league's particular scoring system. Even then, the schedule analysis must be tempered by the fact that it's still just last year's stats and many things can change from year to year. In that context it is interesting data to have, yet it should not be a primary determining factor in doing your player rankings. It is most useful when deciding between two players at the same position with similar values. Using the strength of each player's schedule can act as a tie-breaking factor in these cases.

FantasyFootballChamps.com has a great series on S.O.S. that takes this fantasy perspective. I would encourage FFChamps subscribers to have a look if they find this sort of thing interesting and helpful.

Ranking Brady

Amid conflicting rumors regarding the status of his surgically repaired knee, back in mid-December I blogged over at FantasyFootballChamps about where to rank Tom Brady going into next year's fantasy football season. I contended that it would be tough to rank a healthy Tom Brady outside of my top-three quarterbacks heading into next season. Those that responded and commented on the blog seemed to agree.

Now, with this week's news per the Boston Globe that Brady is running, throwing, and more or less on track to be ready to go once the season starts, what do you think? The Globe's report is the first really solid, detailed update that we have had on his condition so we can with more certainty assume he will be ready to go once the season kicks off.

I personally would not feel comfortable taking Brady No. 1 at quarterback. I think I'd go the safe route and draft either Peyton Manning or Drew Bress instead. However, if it comes down to a choice between Brady and the likes of Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, or Kurt Warner, I'd have a tough time resisting Tom. After all, the last time we saw him play for more than one quarter, he was busy setting the single-season record for touchdown passes.

Of course, long before making such critical fantasy decisions we will know where Matt Cassel is playing. Cassel says he is open to the possibility of returning to New England next season as the backup to Brady, but free agency offers could make him change his tune. The Patriots might apply the franchise tag to the free agent-to-be quarterback as soon as next week. Doing so would tie up a giant percentage of their salary cap in two players that play the same position. Hence, the speculation that the Patriots will entertain trade offers for Cassel. And if they don't retain Cassel, letting him become a free agent, it will send a pretty clear message that the Patriots are confident that Brady will be ready.

What do you think? If you had to draft today, where would you rank Tom Brady heading into the 2009 fantasy football season? Is he top-three at quarterback? Is he No. 1? Or are you too gun shy to roll the dice on him as one of the top quarterbacks next season?

Bo is a member of the FSWA.

Do the Cardinals Have a Chance?

Here are my thoughts on this year's Super Bowl, originally posted in my blog over at FantasyFootballChamps.com:

I'm not a betting man at all so I had to do some searching to find out what the spread is for Super Bowl XLIII. After some Googling I see that the sportsbooks have the Steelers favored by 6.5 to 7 points and I guess I'm not surprised. The Cardinals are definitely the underdogs in the eyes of the betting public and sports media alike. Again, I won't be betting on this game, but if I were my money would be on the Cards. Do I think the Steelers are the safe bet to win this game? Yes. If these two teams played 10 times, do I think that the Steelers would win more than five of those games? Absolutely. We've all heard that defense wins championships, and no team had a better defense than the Steelers this season.

That being said, the Cardinals have been playing some defense this postseason as well. They have shut down a pretty impressive trio of running games so far this month -- all three of them better than the rushing game that Willie Parker and the Steelers have. The pass defense has yielded the normal number of thouchdown passes (for them) with an average of two per playoff game; however, they have really ratcheted up the takeaways with eight interceptions. Ben Roethlisberger is hardly on a different level than Donovan McNabb and Matt Ryan. We won't talk about Jake Delhomme. And with Hines Ward gimping on a sprained knee, I have to think the Steelers passing game might be borderline inept in Tampa this Sunday.

In other words, if the Cardinals can score more than 20 points in this game, I like their chances of not only covering the spread, but winning the game outright. Heck, Larry Fitzgerald will score at least once so they just have to come up with two more touchdowns. Of course, the Steelers defense could score a defensive touchdown or set up short fields for the offense with takeaways and that could prove to be the difference. In short, I think this is going to be a more interesting game than most people give it a chance of being.

Do the Cardinals have a chance? Hey, I didn't think they'd win any of the three playoff games they've played so far... nothing would surprise me.

So I'm saying there's a chance.

SEE ALSO:
Super Bowl XLIII Preview
Super Bowl Prep

Expert Mock Draft

Mock... yeah. Draft... yeah. Ing...yeah. Yeah... yeah!

I just wanted to let all of you know that I have organized the first fantasy football Expert Mock Draft of the preseason for FantasyFootballChamps.com and it will take place this upcoming Monday, June 9 at 9:30 pm ET. Those of you who are FFChamps subscribers will be able to follow along online live by going to the mock draft section of the site.

The other industry veterans who will be taking part in the mockery: John Tuvey, Jon Lopuch, Christian Peterson, Jason Powell, Mat Harrison, Tom Blomberg, Court Mann, Colin Pekruhn, and Joe Potenza. I'd like to invite all of you to stop by and watch the draft unfold, but in case you can't we'll have the results posted for subscribers at FFChamps immediately afterward.