Vick Reinstated

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell reinstated quarterback and former dog-fighting ring operator Michael Vick to the league today. But he did so under a few conditions. Vick may sign with a team and go to training camp, but he will not be allowed to play until the final two preseason games. Then, once the season begins, Vick would be permitted to take part in all team activities and practices except for games until Week 6, at which point he will be eligible for full reinstatement. Basically, it's a five-game suspension. Of course, to get fully reinstated Vick has to earn it. He can't screw up again. As Goodell stated in his letter to Vick, "I accept that you are sincere when you say that you want to, and will, turn your life around, and that you intend to be a positive role model for others. I am prepared to offer you that opportunity. Whether you succeed is entirely in your hands."

Did the commissioner let him off easy? That's the point of view of many right now who would have just as soon seen Vick banished for life from the league or at least be suspended for the year. After all, playing in the NFL is a privilege, not a right. Being allowed basic freedoms, including being able to pursue a job in any profession now that he has done his time by serving two years in jail is his right. You can quibble with the length of his sentence, but it's a little too late for that. The real issue of the moment is that Goodell did not have to reinstate Vick. No one forced him to do so and many would have sided with him if he hadn't done so. No employer or industry is being forced to open their arms to welcome Vick right now. The guess here is that neither PETA nor Alpo will be giving him job opportunities. But the NFL is giving him a second chance and I happen to agree with Goodell's conditional reinstatement. I am in favor of forgiveness and redemption even for the type of hideous transgressions of which Vick is guilty. And yes, I'm a dog-owner and I'm appalled by what Vick did.

Not to get all preachy, but I don't think too many of us would get too far if we weren't offered forgiveness and second chances. Not everybody kills dogs, but everyone whether they are a professional athlete or not is guilty of something. No one is unblemished. I sincerely hope Vick gets his act together, speaks out against the terrible things he did, becomes a champion for animal rights, and tells kids about forgiveness and redemption. He has a heckuva mentor in his corner in Tony Dungy. I hope he leans on him constantly and learns from his goodness and wisdom. Do I really think all of these things will happen? Let's just say I'm not holding my breath. But Vick, just like anyone else, deserves a chance in my book.

Now, as for the fantasy ramifications of his reinstatement, we all must reserve judgment until he 1. signs with someone, and 2. stays on the straight an narrow. Having said that, regardless of where he signs I do not expect Vick to have a significant fantasy impact in 2009. No team is going to hand him the starting reins and it is doubtful that a quarterback who was a lousy passer to begin with got any better while sitting out of football for two years. He was never a great quarterback. Vick was a running back with a strong arm. A phenomenal athlete to be sure, but not a great quarterback. This is not to say he wasn't a fantasy commodity of some value. In many leagues he was. Any player that can rush for 1,000 yards and throw for 20 touchdowns, as Vick did in 2006 has some value. There are many who point to Vick as an ideal "Wild Cat" quarterback, and that may initially be his role wherever he signs. That's assuming he hasn't lost his ridiculous speed and elusiveness. If he has, he's in trouble from a job-search perspective. Again, we'll just have to wait and see where he ends up.

Many teams, just like many people, don't want to give Vick a chance. Many front-office types have stated that they have no intention of adding such a controversial player to their team. The Falcons released him in June. That is their right. But he will sign with someone; I don't doubt that for a second. His agent is fielding calls from teams right now. I would submit that fantasy owners in dynasty leagues who aren't boycotting Vick might want to take a last-round flier on him in hopes that he has a meaningful role by next season. That's the extent of his fantasy value at this juncture. Those in re-draft leagues need not waste a pick on him at this point.

Palmer Doubter

I recently read in one of the many preseason NFL magazines that are currently spreading across your newsstand shelves that Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer is the most underrated player in the league. Um, what? They may as well have written that Kurt Warner was the most agile quarterback or Chad Pennington had the strongest throwing arm. In my mind, nothing could be further from the truth.

The fact is, in fantasy football circles, Palmer is very overrated. Not as overrated as his No. 1 receiver Chad Ochocinco, but overrated nonetheless. The vast majority of fantasy outlets I review still have Palmer rated as a borderline top-10 quarterback. Some actually have him just inside the top 10. And judging from the average draft position data from online mock drafts, the mouth-breathing fantasy football lemmings in this wonderful pastime of ours wholeheartedly agree. They must still think we're talking about the Carson Palmer from the 2004-07 era, the guy who averaged 4,001 yards and 29 touchdown passes a season. That guy was really good. He was a top-five fantasy quarterback. Unfortunately, that guy doesn't live here anymore.

Palmer no longer has two Pro-Bowl caliber wide receivers as he did then. Chad Johnson's productivity has disappeared faster than his real last name and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is now in Seattle, replaced by Laveranues Coles, who has never scored even eight times in a season and who has topped 1,000 yards just once in the last five years. Vintage Palmer also had a Pro-Bowl caliber running back, Rudi Johnson, to take the heat off him. Now he has a first-round bust, Cedric Benson, whose next full season of meaningful fantasy numbers will be his first.

Lastly and most significantly, the Palmer of two, three, four years ago also had a healthy right arm. What's that, you say? Palmer just told Fanhouse a couple weeks ago that his arm is 100 percent? Right. And that dude on the radio selling naming rights to stars really and truly owns the naming rights to all the heavenly bodies in the night-time sky. Call me crazy, but I just don't trust that Palmer is truly healthy. He might look good now running around in shorts throwing passes with no real pressure to speak of, but we'll see what happens when the hitting starts.

Palmer missed 12 games last year because the ulnar collateral ligament as well as a tendon had become partially detached in his throwing elbow. Some doctors told him he needed Tommy John surgery to repair the damage. Some others told him he could let it heal on its own. He listened to the latter and chose not to go under the knife. This can't end well, can it? I'm not wishing for Palmer's arm to snap off or anything. I have nothing against the guy. However, he has too many red flags to ignore. There is no chance he'll be on any of my fantasy teams in 2009...not when any throw could be his last of the season.

Ranking Mo-Jo

Let me say first of all that I am a Maurice Jones-Drew fan. I think he is a great running back and I even had him on one of my teams last season. When Fred Taylor was let go by the Jaguars this offseason, the move opened the door for Mo-Jo to become the Jaguars feature back, free from the nearly 50/50 timeshare he had going with Taylor. In light of the transaction, I moved Jones-Drew up in my rankings from somewhere in the early to mid teens to safely inside the top 10. He ultimately settled in at the seventh spot for performance leagues based on my 2009 projections for him: between 1,150 and 1,200 yards rushing, another 550 or so yards receiving, and 14 touchdowns. The receiving yardage and touchdowns would be on par with what he did last year; the rushing yardage would be a career high by more than 200 yards.

It seemed like a fair projection given that he stands to get additional carries each week. Here's some math: if we assume that Jones-Drew gets 50 percent more carries on average each week this year than last year -- an increase from 12 to 18 carries per game, that would put him at 293 carries. By the way, only five running backs had more carries than that last year so that's a pretty generous assumption for a guy who is 5-7 and just over 200 pounds. Now let's assume he averages 4.0 yards per carry. Why only 4.0? Simple, because his yards-per-carry average has gone down each season, from 5.7 to 4.6 to 4.2 last year. The more carries he gets, the lower his average. This trend also plays out within games, as Mo-Jo averaged just 3.6 yards per carry in the fourth quarter of games last year. Multiplying 293 by four gets you 1,172 yards. Hence my prediction.

When tallying up what that gets you in terms of fantasy points in a standard league, those stats still leave Jones-Drew behind Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Matt Forte, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton in my rankings. Apparently it has also made me the target of those who suggest I am being blasphemous, namely two of the co-hosts (Paul Charchian and Christian Peterson) from the "Fantasy Football Weekly" radio program that I do. They both have Mo-Jo No. 1 overall regardless of scoring system. Now, in a PPR league, I could see taking either Jones-Drew or Forte No. 1. But not in any other type of league.

Taking a quick glance around the industry, it looks as though there is a general consensus that I have Jones-Drew a bit low. I have yet to see another outlet that has him No. 1, but maybe I'm just not looking hard enough. I know NFL.com has him 4, Fanball.com has him 4, Lindy's has him 2, ESPN.com, Pro Football Weekly, and Yahoo! all have him 3, and The Sporting News has him 7 just like me.

I feel as though Mo-Jo is an en vogue top-three this year because he's "different." He's the cool pick because it implies owners are thinking outside the box a little. Peterson seems too obvious...but maybe that's for good reason.

People are overreacting to the departure of Taylor if you ask me. Jones-Drew has never been a feature back before and has never had 200 carries or 1,000 yards. I know he is strong and tough, but he's still just 5-7, 200-ish pounds. I'm not totally convinced he's going to hold up to the pounding and violence of perhaps the most brutal position in all of sports. Lastly, I would not be at all surprised if the Jaguars were hesitant to hand him a full 20-25 carry per game workload. They've always divvied up carries in the past; why stop now? Rookie Rashad Jennings, at 6-1 and 234 pounds, seems especially built for use in short yardage and at the goal line. Might he vulture several touchdowns? I would not be the least bit shocked if he does.

I'll say it again: I like Jones-Drew. Great player. He just doesn't belong atop your fantasy football rankings. I'll take the guy who's going to rush for 2,000 yards one of these years instead. But I'm sure the debate has only just begun.

Fantasy Football Camp

For those of you hardcore fantasy football fans in the upper Midwest, I want to invite you to the Fantasy Football Camp event that will be taking place at Treasure Island Resort and Casino in Red Wing, Minnesota on August 15. I'll be there along with my co-hosts from the "Fantasy Football Weekly" radio show, Paul Charchian, John Tuvey, and Christian Peterson.

We will be doing a live broadcast of the radio show on KFAN from 10 am to 12 noon, followed by two or three hours of more in-depth fantasy football analysis including a mock draft.

Here is the press release with more details about the Fantasy Football camp.

As you can see in the release, there will even be space set aside at the casino for leagues to hold their drafts at the event.

When we did a similar event to this one two years ago, it was a lot of fun. We had a huge turnout and I am looking forward to an even bigger audience this time. For fantasy football freaks this is a can't-miss event so I hope to see many of you there!

2009 Cheat Sheet

Ladies and gentlemen, may I direct your attention to the right side of this page...

It's the official 2009 Fantasy Football Legend cheat sheet. I posted it today and will continue to post updated rankings between now and the start of the season. And yes, it's free. Just click on the link and you will be able to go to scribd.com, download it, and print it out.

It's important to note that the scoring system I had in mind when creating the rankings for the FFLegend cheat sheet is your typical performance league. Specifically, I assumed that roughly half the points would be scored by touchdowns and the other half by yardage. So a touchdown equals a 100 yards of rushing or receiving and about 250 yards passing. This is NOT a cheat sheet for a PPR league, touchdown-only league, dynasty league, or keeper league.

Perhaps I'll add those formats to my to-do list.

For now, go ahead and download the cheat sheet and do with it what you will. It's a simple, easy-to-read format and I know hundreds of people on scribd.com downloaded it last year.

Back on the Air

It was good to be back on the radio airwaves yesterday!

I joined Paul Charchian and John Tuvey in studio at KFAN Radio Tuesday morning to talk fantasy football for an hour. Our primary topic was sleepers and I touted Shaun Hill, Ray Rice, and Justin Gage as three of my favorite underrated players this preseason. We also got into where we'd rank each of the primary Vikings players since KFAN is the Vikings flagship station. John and I say Adrian Peterson is the No. 1 player in fantasy football; Charch went with Maurice Jones-Drew (wrong answer!).

Today's hour of fantasy football speculation was a precursor of sorts to our "Fantasy Football Weekly" radio program which kicks off its 15th season on August 1. The show can be heard Saturdays from 10-12 noon CT on KFAN and KFAN.com, where it can also be downloaded (after it airs) in their "FAN on Demand" section. It is the longest-running and most popular show of it's kind on the air. Check it out sometime and see why!

To hear Tuesday's program, click here.

As I mentioned, the show begins August 1st; however, I will be out of the studio that day riding my bike on The Hartford Breast Cancer Ride. My plan is to call in from the road that day for about five minutes, but we'll have to see if I remember to do so while trying to bike nearly 150 miles in two days.

By the way, if you wish to sponsor me on The Hartford Breast Cancer Ride, you may do so online at my personal page here. Thanks in advance for your generosity!

Industry Expert Draft Review

I have been on the lookout for some industry expert leagues to get into this season to represent FFChamps.com and FFLegend.com. I've found a couple of pretty good ones, and recently I took part in my first industry experts league draft of the year. I am competing in this particular league against 11 other fantasy football outlets, including pros from USA Today, CBS Sportsline, Pro Football Weekly, FFIndepth.com (the organizer of the league) and many others.

This league uses the same rules as the World Championship of Fantasy Football, most notably it's a point-per-reception (PPR) league. Our lineup consists of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker, one team defense, and a flex position player (WR, TE, or RB).

I had the fifth overall pick, so after Maurice Jones-Drew went No. 1 (mistake!), Adrian Peterson went second, and Matt Forte went third, I was sitting on either Larry Fitzgerald Jr. or Andre Johnson with my pick. Remember, in PPR leagues like this, the popular strategy of taking a running back in the first round does not always apply. Well, as fate would have it, Fitz went No. 4 to PFW so I grabbed Johnson. (Yes, Beavis, that's what I said).

I employed the "do the opposite" strategy and ended up with a team I like a lot, including Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Peyton Manning with my first three picks, and three 1,000-yard rushers (Ryan Grant, Derrick Ward, and Thomas Jones) in my backfield.

For those of you unfamiliar with the "opposite" draft strategy, I invite you to check out the Fantasy Football University class on Fantasy Football Terminology at FFChamps.com. It's free to non-subscribers, like all of the FFU classes.

Here's how my team turned out, ordered by round:

1. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
2. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers
3. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
4. Ryan Grant, RB, Packers
5. Derrick Ward, RB, Buccaneers
6. Thomas Jones, RB, Jets
7. Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings
8. John Carlson, TE, Seahawks
9. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings
10. Eli Manning, QB, Giants
11. Minnesota Vikings Defense
12. Justin Gage, WR, Titans
13. Earnest Graham, RB, Buccaneers
14. Kevin Boss, TE, Giants
15. James Davis, RB, Browns
16. Jason Elam, K, Falcons
17. Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars
18. Ryan Longwell, K, Vikings

According to the FFChamps C3 cheat sheet for PPR leagues, I have the No. 2 quarterback, No. 2 and No. 6 wide receivers, No. 2 kicker, No. 2 team defense, and the No. 6 tight end. Waiting on running backs hurt my depth there, but I still wound up with three top-20 backs. I like my sleepers (Justin Gage and Kevin Boss) and I like Eli Manning's matchup (vs. Saints) on Peyton's bye week. Moreover, my two rookie running backs could surprise and I handcuffed Graham to Ward. I also don't have any bye week issues.

Here is my Week 1 Lineup:
QB - Peyton Manning
RB - Derrick Ward
RB - Ryan Grant
WR - Andre Johnson
WR - Greg Jennings
WR - Bernard Berrian
Flex - Thomas Jones
TE - John Carlson
K - Jason Elam
D - Vikings

All in all, I would say the draft was a success. Let me know what you think of my team.