Ranking Brady

Amid conflicting rumors regarding the status of his surgically repaired knee, back in mid-December I blogged over at FantasyFootballChamps about where to rank Tom Brady going into next year's fantasy football season. I contended that it would be tough to rank a healthy Tom Brady outside of my top-three quarterbacks heading into next season. Those that responded and commented on the blog seemed to agree.

Now, with this week's news per the Boston Globe that Brady is running, throwing, and more or less on track to be ready to go once the season starts, what do you think? The Globe's report is the first really solid, detailed update that we have had on his condition so we can with more certainty assume he will be ready to go once the season kicks off.

I personally would not feel comfortable taking Brady No. 1 at quarterback. I think I'd go the safe route and draft either Peyton Manning or Drew Bress instead. However, if it comes down to a choice between Brady and the likes of Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, or Kurt Warner, I'd have a tough time resisting Tom. After all, the last time we saw him play for more than one quarter, he was busy setting the single-season record for touchdown passes.

Of course, long before making such critical fantasy decisions we will know where Matt Cassel is playing. Cassel says he is open to the possibility of returning to New England next season as the backup to Brady, but free agency offers could make him change his tune. The Patriots might apply the franchise tag to the free agent-to-be quarterback as soon as next week. Doing so would tie up a giant percentage of their salary cap in two players that play the same position. Hence, the speculation that the Patriots will entertain trade offers for Cassel. And if they don't retain Cassel, letting him become a free agent, it will send a pretty clear message that the Patriots are confident that Brady will be ready.

What do you think? If you had to draft today, where would you rank Tom Brady heading into the 2009 fantasy football season? Is he top-three at quarterback? Is he No. 1? Or are you too gun shy to roll the dice on him as one of the top quarterbacks next season?

Bo is a member of the FSWA.

Do the Cardinals Have a Chance?

Here are my thoughts on this year's Super Bowl, originally posted in my blog over at FantasyFootballChamps.com:

I'm not a betting man at all so I had to do some searching to find out what the spread is for Super Bowl XLIII. After some Googling I see that the sportsbooks have the Steelers favored by 6.5 to 7 points and I guess I'm not surprised. The Cardinals are definitely the underdogs in the eyes of the betting public and sports media alike. Again, I won't be betting on this game, but if I were my money would be on the Cards. Do I think the Steelers are the safe bet to win this game? Yes. If these two teams played 10 times, do I think that the Steelers would win more than five of those games? Absolutely. We've all heard that defense wins championships, and no team had a better defense than the Steelers this season.

That being said, the Cardinals have been playing some defense this postseason as well. They have shut down a pretty impressive trio of running games so far this month -- all three of them better than the rushing game that Willie Parker and the Steelers have. The pass defense has yielded the normal number of thouchdown passes (for them) with an average of two per playoff game; however, they have really ratcheted up the takeaways with eight interceptions. Ben Roethlisberger is hardly on a different level than Donovan McNabb and Matt Ryan. We won't talk about Jake Delhomme. And with Hines Ward gimping on a sprained knee, I have to think the Steelers passing game might be borderline inept in Tampa this Sunday.

In other words, if the Cardinals can score more than 20 points in this game, I like their chances of not only covering the spread, but winning the game outright. Heck, Larry Fitzgerald will score at least once so they just have to come up with two more touchdowns. Of course, the Steelers defense could score a defensive touchdown or set up short fields for the offense with takeaways and that could prove to be the difference. In short, I think this is going to be a more interesting game than most people give it a chance of being.

Do the Cardinals have a chance? Hey, I didn't think they'd win any of the three playoff games they've played so far... nothing would surprise me.

So I'm saying there's a chance.

SEE ALSO:
Super Bowl XLIII Preview
Super Bowl Prep

The Case for Fitz

This past Sunday, Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald caught 10 passes for 151 yards against the Seahawks, but he failed to reach the end zone for the third time in his last four games. In spite of his recent scoring drought, Fitzgerald remains on pace to score 10 touchdowns this season and a solid case could be made that he warrants designation as the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy football. I know his teammate, Anquan Boldin, has caught more touchdown passes this season, and I realize that the Texans Andre Johnson has him by 16 yards.  But I don't think many people realize the rarified air Fitz is on pace to reach if he continues at his current clip.

Specifically, Fitzgerald is on pace for 107 receptions, 1,502 yards, and 10 touchdowns. It would mark the third time in his six-year career that he has reached 100 receptions, 1,400 yards, and 10 touchdowns. 

That got me to wondering how rare it is for a receiver to reach that trio of milestones.  So I started doing some digging and I found that Marvin Harrison has done it four times, Jerry Rice did it three times, and Randy Moss has only done it once.  It took Harrison until he was 30 to reach those levels three times. It took Rice, arguably the best to ever play the game, until he was 33 to do it. Fitzgerald is 25. I can't find anyone else who turned the 100/1,400/10 trick three times before their 26th birthday. If you can, let me know.

Whether you play in a touchdown-only league, performance league, or PPR league, and especially if you play in a keeper league, I can't think of a wide receiver I would rather have on my fantasy team.  I know Boldin is hotter right now and Roddy White has been every bit as good as Fitz this season, but no one can compare to Larry's combination of skill, youth, stats, and consistency.  He will definitely be the No. 1 wide receiver in my rankings heading into next season.

Who Comes After Peterson?

Whether you call him AD, AP, or Adrian Peterson, what most people are now calling the Vikings Pro Bowl running back is the best player in fantasy football. That is, unless you play in a point-per-reception or touchdown-only league, in which case Peterson remains merely "one of the best." However, most leagues are not built around PPR rules and the basic TD-only league is fading quickly in popularity, meaning that in most cases the NFL's current leading rusher is numero uno.

Of course, for some of us who have been hailing Peterson as the best player in fantasy football since last season, this comes as no surprise. I know there are still some people who don't buy into him as the No. 1 overall player (and I am also sure some of them will comment on this post) but my mind is made up as to who will sit atop my fantasy football rankings again next year.

The question for me is: who is AP? As in: who comes after Peterson in the rankings heading into next season? For some of you in keeper leagues and dynasty leagues and others who are hopelessly behind in re-draft leagues, it is not too early to start looking ahead in this way. We had this discussion of who comes after Peterson during our Fantasy Football Weekly radio program this past Saturday and we did not come up with a clear-cut answer. Michael Turner, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Matt Forte were suggested. A compelling argument could be made for Brandon Jacobs as well. What about Clinton Portis? Joseph Addai?

Compelling arguments could be made against the aforementioned Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook. They were universally ranked with Peterson in the top three on most people's lists heading into the 2008 season; however, both have had injury issues this season and both turn 30 years old (the dreaded age for running backs) this upcoming offseason.

I would suggest with a great deal of certainty that the player who comes after Peterson on my list next summer will not be a quarterback or wide receiver. There is no clear-cut-far-and-away No. 1 player at either of those two positions and therefore no reason to reach for one at the top of the first round.

So, what say you? Fast forward to the summer of 2009 and tell me who you think will be the consensus top two, or three, or four, or five players in fantasy drafts. I'd love to hear some opinions.

Doubting Thomas

As the Jets get set to take on the Patriots Thursday night in prime time I can't help but think that the hot streak that Thomas Jones has been on lately is about to come to an end.   Just as it was easy to see by looking at his schedule that Jones was going to have a productive period from Weeks 6-10, it is easy to anticipate lower numbers for at least the next two games.

Jones was someone I was touting as a buy low candidate prior to his recent stretch; I even tried in vain to acquire him in a trade in two leagues. Too bad I didn't because from Weeks 6-10 he exploded for eight touchdowns and is now tied for second amongst running backs with nine total touchdowns on the season. The nine scores matches his career high. He is also fifth in the NFL in rushing now with 750 yards. His cupcake-filled schedule is clearly to blame. During his recent torrid stretch he played against the 15th, 25th, 29th, 30th, and 32nd ranked run defenses in the NFL.  Any runner worth his salt would have put up big numbers.

However, tonight's game against the Patriots should be a different story.  The Patriots rank 12th against the run thanks in large part to Ronnie Brown's ridiculous 113-yard, four-touchdown effort against them back in Week 3. Outside of that game, the Patriots have not permitted any running back to top 100 yards or run for a touchdown against them this season.  In his last three games against New England, Jones has accumulated a total of 131 yards on 40 carries and has not reached the end zone. After getting stifled by the Patriots tonight, Jones goes on the road to face Albert Haynesworth and the Titans, who currently boast the eighth-ranked run defense and the No. 1 defense in the league in terms of points against.  I fully expect Jones to be held under 100 yards and out of the end zone in both games.

After the next two weeks his schedule loosens up a bit again, so fantasy owners could be in a position to "buy low" on him once again just prior to the fantasy playoffs.  So if you missed out on the chance to acquire him just prior to his recent tear, have some patience because you might get a second chance... assuming your league has a late trade deadline.

Gettin' Thiggy With It

You may be asking yourself: "Who in the world is Tyler Thigpen and why the heck is he the hot pickup du jour in fantasy football right now?" Glad you asked! Thigpen was taken in the seventh round of the NFL draft by the Vikings last year and competed for the third quarterback spot on the depth chart in training camp. When the Vikes released him with the intention of putting him on their practice squad, the Chiefs snapped him up and added him to their active roster behind Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard.  He attempted only six passes and had one of them intercepted his rookie season. 

He began this season buried in the third spot on the KC depth chart again, but when Croyle and Huard were placed on Injured Reserve three weeks ago, Thigpen was given his chance to start. In his first game, he out-dueled his idol, Brett Favre, by throwing for 280 yards and two touchdowns. His performance raised many eyebrows. Two starts later the Chiefs still have not won under him, which is hardly a surprise given the state of their defense, but Thigpen has not been to blame. Through three starts he has completed 65 percent of his passes (66-102) for 710 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions.  The completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio is particularly impressive for such an inexperienced quarterback out of the Big South conference. Note: he was the first player from the conference to be drafted by an NFL team. 

I'm sure that in the coming weeks, opposing coaches will begin to develop a book on Thigpen, but how much that matters is debatable since his remaining schedule is so favorable. His last seven games with are as follows, with defensive rank against the pass in parentheses: Saints (27), Bills (16), Raiders (13), Broncos (28), Chargers (32), Dolphins (25), and Bengals (10). 

As you can see, the balance of his schedule is loaded with cupcakes. With two great weapons like Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe, and the return of Larry Johnson to supply an actual running game this week, there is reason for optimism surrounding Thigpen. If you are in need of quarterback depth down the stretch, you could do much worse than to get Thiggy.