Fantasy Football Legend

Vick Reinstated

2009-07-27T15:00:00.000-05:00

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell reinstated quarterback and former dog-fighting ring operator Michael Vick to the league today. But he did so under a few conditions. Vick may sign with a team and go to training camp, but he will not be allowed to play until the final two preseason games. Then, once the season begins, Vick would be permitted to take part in all team activities and practices except for games until Week 6, at which point he will be eligible for full reinstatement. Basically, it's a five-game suspension. Of course, to get fully reinstated Vick has to earn it. He can't screw up again. As Goodell stated in his letter to Vick, "I accept that you are sincere when you say that you want to, and will, turn your life around, and that you intend to be a positive role model for others. I am prepared to offer you that opportunity. Whether you succeed is entirely in your hands."

Did the commissioner let him off easy? That's the point of view of many right now who would have just as soon seen Vick banished for life from the league or at least be suspended for the year. After all, playing in the NFL is a privilege, not a right. Being allowed basic freedoms, including being able to pursue a job in any profession now that he has done his time by serving two years in jail is his right. You can quibble with the length of his sentence, but it's a little too late for that. The real issue of the moment is that Goodell did not have to reinstate Vick. No one forced him to do so and many would have sided with him if he hadn't done so. No employer or industry is being forced to open their arms to welcome Vick right now. The guess here is that neither PETA nor Alpo will be giving him job opportunities. But the NFL is giving him a second chance and I happen to agree with Goodell's conditional reinstatement. I am in favor of forgiveness and redemption even for the type of hideous transgressions of which Vick is guilty. And yes, I'm a dog-owner and I'm appalled by what Vick did.

Not to get all preachy, but I don't think too many of us would get too far if we weren't offered forgiveness and second chances. Not everybody kills dogs, but everyone whether they are a professional athlete or not is guilty of something. No one is unblemished. I sincerely hope Vick gets his act together, speaks out against the terrible things he did, becomes a champion for animal rights, and tells kids about forgiveness and redemption. He has a heckuva mentor in his corner in Tony Dungy. I hope he leans on him constantly and learns from his goodness and wisdom. Do I really think all of these things will happen? Let's just say I'm not holding my breath. But Vick, just like anyone else, deserves a chance in my book.

Now, as for the fantasy ramifications of his reinstatement, we all must reserve judgment until he 1. signs with someone, and 2. stays on the straight an narrow. Having said that, regardless of where he signs I do not expect Vick to have a significant fantasy impact in 2009. No team is going to hand him the starting reins and it is doubtful that a quarterback who was a lousy passer to begin with got any better while sitting out of football for two years. He was never a great quarterback. Vick was a running back with a strong arm. A phenomenal athlete to be sure, but not a great quarterback. This is not to say he wasn't a fantasy commodity of some value. In many leagues he was. Any player that can rush for 1,000 yards and throw for 20 touchdowns, as Vick did in 2006 has some value. There are many who point to Vick as an ideal "Wild Cat" quarterback, and that may initially be his role wherever he signs. That's assuming he hasn't lost his ridiculous speed and elusiveness. If he has, he's in trouble from a job-search perspective. Again, we'll just have to wait and see where he ends up.

Many teams, just like many people, don't want to give Vick a chance. Many front-office types have stated that they have no intention of adding such a controversial player to their team. The Falcons released him in June. That is their right. But he will sign with someone; I don't doubt that for a second. His agent is fielding calls from teams right now. I would submit that fantasy owners in dynasty leagues who aren't boycotting Vick might want to take a last-round flier on him in hopes that he has a meaningful role by next season. That's the extent of his fantasy value at this juncture. Those in re-draft leagues need not waste a pick on him at this point.

Palmer Doubter

2009-07-24T22:00:00.004-05:00

I recently read in one of the many preseason NFL magazines that are currently spreading across your newsstand shelves that Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer is the most underrated player in the league. Um, what? They may as well have written that Kurt Warner was the most agile quarterback or Chad Pennington had the strongest throwing arm. In my mind, nothing could be further from the truth.

The fact is, in fantasy football circles, Palmer is very overrated. Not as overrated as his No. 1 receiver Chad Ochocinco, but overrated nonetheless. The vast majority of fantasy outlets I review still have Palmer rated as a borderline top-10 quarterback. Some actually have him just inside the top 10. And judging from the average draft position data from online mock drafts, the mouth-breathing fantasy football lemmings in this wonderful pastime of ours wholeheartedly agree. They must still think we're talking about the Carson Palmer from the 2004-07 era, the guy who averaged 4,001 yards and 29 touchdown passes a season. That guy was really good. He was a top-five fantasy quarterback. Unfortunately, that guy doesn't live here anymore.

Palmer no longer has two Pro-Bowl caliber wide receivers as he did then. Chad Johnson's productivity has disappeared faster than his real last name and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is now in Seattle, replaced by Laveranues Coles, who has never scored even eight times in a season and who has topped 1,000 yards just once in the last five years. Vintage Palmer also had a Pro-Bowl caliber running back, Rudi Johnson, to take the heat off him. Now he has a first-round bust, Cedric Benson, whose next full season of meaningful fantasy numbers will be his first.

Lastly and most significantly, the Palmer of two, three, four years ago also had a healthy right arm. What's that, you say? Palmer just told Fanhouse a couple weeks ago that his arm is 100 percent? Right. And that dude on the radio selling naming rights to stars really and truly owns the naming rights to all the heavenly bodies in the night-time sky. Call me crazy, but I just don't trust that Palmer is truly healthy. He might look good now running around in shorts throwing passes with no real pressure to speak of, but we'll see what happens when the hitting starts.

Palmer missed 12 games last year because the ulnar collateral ligament as well as a tendon had become partially detached in his throwing elbow. Some doctors told him he needed Tommy John surgery to repair the damage. Some others told him he could let it heal on its own. He listened to the latter and chose not to go under the knife. This can't end well, can it? I'm not wishing for Palmer's arm to snap off or anything. I have nothing against the guy. However, he has too many red flags to ignore. There is no chance he'll be on any of my fantasy teams in 2009...not when any throw could be his last of the season.

Ranking Mo-Jo

2009-07-16T21:00:00.002-05:00

Let me say first of all that I am a Maurice Jones-Drew fan. I think he is a great running back and I even had him on one of my teams last season. When Fred Taylor was let go by the Jaguars this offseason, the move opened the door for Mo-Jo to become the Jaguars feature back, free from the nearly 50/50 timeshare he had going with Taylor. In light of the transaction, I moved Jones-Drew up in my rankings from somewhere in the early to mid teens to safely inside the top 10. He ultimately settled in at the seventh spot for performance leagues based on my 2009 projections for him: between 1,150 and 1,200 yards rushing, another 550 or so yards receiving, and 14 touchdowns. The receiving yardage and touchdowns would be on par with what he did last year; the rushing yardage would be a career high by more than 200 yards.

It seemed like a fair projection given that he stands to get additional carries each week. Here's some math: if we assume that Jones-Drew gets 50 percent more carries on average each week this year than last year -- an increase from 12 to 18 carries per game, that would put him at 293 carries. By the way, only five running backs had more carries than that last year so that's a pretty generous assumption for a guy who is 5-7 and just over 200 pounds. Now let's assume he averages 4.0 yards per carry. Why only 4.0? Simple, because his yards-per-carry average has gone down each season, from 5.7 to 4.6 to 4.2 last year. The more carries he gets, the lower his average. This trend also plays out within games, as Mo-Jo averaged just 3.6 yards per carry in the fourth quarter of games last year. Multiplying 293 by four gets you 1,172 yards. Hence my prediction.

When tallying up what that gets you in terms of fantasy points in a standard league, those stats still leave Jones-Drew behind Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Matt Forte, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton in my rankings. Apparently it has also made me the target of those who suggest I am being blasphemous, namely two of the co-hosts (Paul Charchian and Christian Peterson) from the "Fantasy Football Weekly" radio program that I do. They both have Mo-Jo No. 1 overall regardless of scoring system. Now, in a PPR league, I could see taking either Jones-Drew or Forte No. 1. But not in any other type of league.

Taking a quick glance around the industry, it looks as though there is a general consensus that I have Jones-Drew a bit low. I have yet to see another outlet that has him No. 1, but maybe I'm just not looking hard enough. I know NFL.com has him 4, Fanball.com has him 4, Lindy's has him 2, ESPN.com, Pro Football Weekly, and Yahoo! all have him 3, and The Sporting News has him 7 just like me.

I feel as though Mo-Jo is an en vogue top-three this year because he's "different." He's the cool pick because it implies owners are thinking outside the box a little. Peterson seems too obvious...but maybe that's for good reason.

People are overreacting to the departure of Taylor if you ask me. Jones-Drew has never been a feature back before and has never had 200 carries or 1,000 yards. I know he is strong and tough, but he's still just 5-7, 200-ish pounds. I'm not totally convinced he's going to hold up to the pounding and violence of perhaps the most brutal position in all of sports. Lastly, I would not be at all surprised if the Jaguars were hesitant to hand him a full 20-25 carry per game workload. They've always divvied up carries in the past; why stop now? Rookie Rashad Jennings, at 6-1 and 234 pounds, seems especially built for use in short yardage and at the goal line. Might he vulture several touchdowns? I would not be the least bit shocked if he does.

I'll say it again: I like Jones-Drew. Great player. He just doesn't belong atop your fantasy football rankings. I'll take the guy who's going to rush for 2,000 yards one of these years instead. But I'm sure the debate has only just begun.

Fantasy Football Camp

2009-07-16T18:00:00.001-05:00

For those of you hardcore fantasy football fans in the upper Midwest, I want to invite you to the Fantasy Football Camp event that will be taking place at Treasure Island Resort and Casino in Red Wing, Minnesota on August 15. I'll be there along with my co-hosts from the "Fantasy Football Weekly" radio show, Paul Charchian, John Tuvey, and Christian Peterson.

We will be doing a live broadcast of the radio show on KFAN from 10 am to 12 noon, followed by two or three hours of more in-depth fantasy football analysis including a mock draft.

Here is the press release with more details about the Fantasy Football camp.

As you can see in the release, there will even be space set aside at the casino for leagues to hold their drafts at the event.

When we did a similar event to this one two years ago, it was a lot of fun. We had a huge turnout and I am looking forward to an even bigger audience this time. For fantasy football freaks this is a can't-miss event so I hope to see many of you there!

2009 Cheat Sheet

2009-07-15T16:00:00.005-05:00

Ladies and gentlemen, may I direct your attention to the right side of this page...

It's the official 2009 Fantasy Football Legend cheat sheet. I posted it today and will continue to post updated rankings between now and the start of the season. And yes, it's free. Just click on the link and you will be able to go to scribd.com, download it, and print it out.

It's important to note that the scoring system I had in mind when creating the rankings for the FFLegend cheat sheet is your typical performance league. Specifically, I assumed that roughly half the points would be scored by touchdowns and the other half by yardage. So a touchdown equals a 100 yards of rushing or receiving and about 250 yards passing. This is NOT a cheat sheet for a PPR league, touchdown-only league, dynasty league, or keeper league.

Perhaps I'll add those formats to my to-do list.

For now, go ahead and download the cheat sheet and do with it what you will. It's a simple, easy-to-read format and I know hundreds of people on scribd.com downloaded it last year.

Back on the Air

2009-07-15T15:00:00.016-05:00

It was good to be back on the radio airwaves yesterday!

I joined Paul Charchian and John Tuvey in studio at KFAN Radio Tuesday morning to talk fantasy football for an hour. Our primary topic was sleepers and I touted Shaun Hill, Ray Rice, and Justin Gage as three of my favorite underrated players this preseason. We also got into where we'd rank each of the primary Vikings players since KFAN is the Vikings flagship station. John and I say Adrian Peterson is the No. 1 player in fantasy football; Charch went with Maurice Jones-Drew (wrong answer!).

Today's hour of fantasy football speculation was a precursor of sorts to our "Fantasy Football Weekly" radio program which kicks off its 15th season on August 1. The show can be heard Saturdays from 10-12 noon CT on KFAN and KFAN.com, where it can also be downloaded (after it airs) in their "FAN on Demand" section. It is the longest-running and most popular show of it's kind on the air. Check it out sometime and see why!

To hear Tuesday's program, click here.

As I mentioned, the show begins August 1st; however, I will be out of the studio that day riding my bike on The Hartford Breast Cancer Ride. My plan is to call in from the road that day for about five minutes, but we'll have to see if I remember to do so while trying to bike nearly 150 miles in two days.

By the way, if you wish to sponsor me on The Hartford Breast Cancer Ride, you may do so online at my personal page here. Thanks in advance for your generosity!

Industry Expert Draft Review

2009-07-15T15:00:00.015-05:00

I have been on the lookout for some industry expert leagues to get into this season to represent FFChamps.com and FFLegend.com. I've found a couple of pretty good ones, and recently I took part in my first industry experts league draft of the year. I am competing in this particular league against 11 other fantasy football outlets, including pros from USA Today, CBS Sportsline, Pro Football Weekly, FFIndepth.com (the organizer of the league) and many others.

This league uses the same rules as the World Championship of Fantasy Football, most notably it's a point-per-reception (PPR) league. Our lineup consists of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker, one team defense, and a flex position player (WR, TE, or RB).

I had the fifth overall pick, so after Maurice Jones-Drew went No. 1 (mistake!), Adrian Peterson went second, and Matt Forte went third, I was sitting on either Larry Fitzgerald Jr. or Andre Johnson with my pick. Remember, in PPR leagues like this, the popular strategy of taking a running back in the first round does not always apply. Well, as fate would have it, Fitz went No. 4 to PFW so I grabbed Johnson. (Yes, Beavis, that's what I said).

I employed the "do the opposite" strategy and ended up with a team I like a lot, including Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Peyton Manning with my first three picks, and three 1,000-yard rushers (Ryan Grant, Derrick Ward, and Thomas Jones) in my backfield.

For those of you unfamiliar with the "opposite" draft strategy, I invite you to check out the Fantasy Football University class on Fantasy Football Terminology at FFChamps.com. It's free to non-subscribers, like all of the FFU classes.

Here's how my team turned out, ordered by round:

1. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
2. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers
3. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
4. Ryan Grant, RB, Packers
5. Derrick Ward, RB, Buccaneers
6. Thomas Jones, RB, Jets
7. Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings
8. John Carlson, TE, Seahawks
9. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings
10. Eli Manning, QB, Giants
11. Minnesota Vikings Defense
12. Justin Gage, WR, Titans
13. Earnest Graham, RB, Buccaneers
14. Kevin Boss, TE, Giants
15. James Davis, RB, Browns
16. Jason Elam, K, Falcons
17. Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars
18. Ryan Longwell, K, Vikings

According to the FFChamps C3 cheat sheet for PPR leagues, I have the No. 2 quarterback, No. 2 and No. 6 wide receivers, No. 2 kicker, No. 2 team defense, and the No. 6 tight end. Waiting on running backs hurt my depth there, but I still wound up with three top-20 backs. I like my sleepers (Justin Gage and Kevin Boss) and I like Eli Manning's matchup (vs. Saints) on Peyton's bye week. Moreover, my two rookie running backs could surprise and I handcuffed Graham to Ward. I also don't have any bye week issues.

Here is my Week 1 Lineup:
QB - Peyton Manning
RB - Derrick Ward
RB - Ryan Grant
WR - Andre Johnson
WR - Greg Jennings
WR - Bernard Berrian
Flex - Thomas Jones
TE - John Carlson
K - Jason Elam
D - Vikings

All in all, I would say the draft was a success. Let me know what you think of my team.

The Case For Auctions

2009-07-15T15:00:00.004-05:00

The draft is and may always be the most popular way to distribute players in fantasy football. It's a shame, though, because using an auction is a much better method. There are a lot of old-timers out there who steadfastly refuse to try an auction for reasons ranging from “we've always used a draft, so there's no reason to change” to “auctions sound too complicated and will just take forever.” Both are merely excuses, and bad ones at that. As a long-time auction apologist, I feel it is my duty to annually spread the good word about auctions. So here then are my five reasons why your league should use an auction rather than a draft this year:

1. Auctions are fairer

There is absolutely no question that an auction is a more equitable means of distributing players than a draft. Even if your draft uses a serpentine method in which the order reverses every round (1-12, 12-1) an auction is fairer. It's simple: in an auction every team is on equal footing. Every team gets the same auction budget and has to buy the same number of players. Unlike a draft in which the order (oftentimes a random order totally based on luck) determines who will be getting the best players at the top, an auction allows everyone a shot at the best players as long as they are willing to pay the price. Said another way, there is only one No.1 pick in a draft, but everyone is capable of getting the best player in an auction. The last I checked fairness is something for which we should strive when making the rules that govern fantasy football leagues.

2. Auctions are more fun

Let me see if this sounds familiar: it's draft day and you make your pick, then 20 minutes later you make your next pick. Between selections you hear someone ask at least once, “who the bleep is up?!” while some numskull frantically flips through magazines that were written five months earlier trying to decide between four different tight ends. Yes, draft day is a lot of fun, but it can also get very tedious, even boring, at times. That is never the case in an auction because the answer to “who's up?” is always “everyone.” You can bid on every stinkin' player if you want, provided you still have ample money left in your auction coffers. The action never drags in an auction, unlike a draft where owners often have enough time to take a short nap between picks.

3. More strategy is a good thing

If using your brain is an issue, then maybe you ought to quit your whining and stick with drafts. However, for those of you who actually believe you might know a little something more than the next guy about this great obsession we call fantasy football, then the opportunity to employ more strategy (i.e. think) should be a welcome endeavor. Yes, an auction involves more strategy than a draft. It involves pre-auction strategy like devising a list of projected auction values and figuring out how you want to budget your money. It also involves in-auction strategy such as bidding patterns, getting tells on other owners, and making plan changes on the fly. In other words it gives everyone a chance to flex their brain muscles rather than sit on them for four hours while periodically spitting out a name.

4. Auctions reward those who prepare

If we really want to continue rewarding the lazy, then the terrorists have won. Don't you hate it when “that guy” stumbles into a good team on draft day? You know the guy—he's the one who pays no attention to football all offseason, shows up to a draft with nothing but a case of beer, Xeroxes a copy of your C3 cheat sheet from FFChamps, lucks into a top-three pick, and then just goes down the line on his (your) cheat sheet picking the next best player? Meanwhile, you've studied, planned, and stayed on top of the news, only to get the ninth pick and leave the draft frustrated and depressed. An auction does not allow for someone to be unprepared. Those who are unprepared for an auction will be eaten up in an auction format and left unprepared when the season starts. Those who prepare, even a little, will actually benefit from their hard work and knowledge via better bidding.

5. Auctions are easier than you think

Auctions are a bit more challenging than a draft, but seriously you don't even have to be smarter than a fifth grader to figure them out. If you can read, speak, count to 100, and have mastered the art of subtraction (addition's tricky friend) you are qualified to participate in a fantasy football auction. It's really not that tough, people. And, no, it doesn't take 10 hours. If you have a half-way decent auctioneer it shouldn't take any longer than a draft does… and it will be so much more action-packed and fun it will feel like it actually takes less time.

I don't know of a league that has tried an auction that has gone back to doing a draft.

Is your league contemplating the switch?

You hereby have my permission—in fact, I implore you—to copy and paste this article into an email or just copy the link and send it to the nonbelievers in your league. If I can convert even one more league to use an auction rather than a draft I will feel as though I have made this world just a little better place for future generations.

NFL Strength of Schedule

2009-07-15T14:00:00.004-05:00

I always find NFL strength of schedule analysis to be a bit overrated because it is based solely on last year's winning percentages and does not account for the changes made since via free agency and the draft. Nor does it account for injuries. Case in point: does anyone think the Patriots will be worse this year than they were last year when Tom Brady essentially missed the entire season? Nevertheless, looking at the strength of schedule can give one an approximate idea of how soft or hard a given team's schedule is at a glance. It's entertaining and good water cooler fodder. To that end, here is a look at this year's strength of schedule ranked from toughest to easiest:

(Note: click on the image to see a larger version of the table)

In terms of its usefulness for fantasy football purposes, the strength of schedule purely based on winning percentages from last year has a limited application. It is far better to analyze how opposing defenses fared against the run and against the pass and then break those stats down further into yardage and touchdowns to determine how that translates into points in your league's particular scoring system. Even then, the schedule analysis must be tempered by the fact that it's still just last year's stats and many things can change from year to year. In that context it is interesting data to have, yet it should not be a primary determining factor in doing your player rankings. It is most useful when deciding between two players at the same position with similar values. Using the strength of each player's schedule can act as a tie-breaking factor in these cases.

FantasyFootballChamps.com has a great series on S.O.S. that takes this fantasy perspective. I would encourage FFChamps subscribers to have a look if they find this sort of thing interesting and helpful.

Ranking Brady

2009-01-29T10:00:00.008-06:00

Amid conflicting rumors regarding the status of his surgically repaired knee, back in mid-December I blogged over at FantasyFootballChamps about where to rank Tom Brady going into next year's fantasy football season. I contended that it would be tough to rank a healthy Tom Brady outside of my top-three quarterbacks heading into next season. Those that responded and commented on the blog seemed to agree.

Now, with this week's news per the Boston Globe that Brady is running, throwing, and more or less on track to be ready to go once the season starts, what do you think? The Globe's report is the first really solid, detailed update that we have had on his condition so we can with more certainty assume he will be ready to go once the season kicks off.

I personally would not feel comfortable taking Brady No. 1 at quarterback. I think I'd go the safe route and draft either Peyton Manning or Drew Bress instead. However, if it comes down to a choice between Brady and the likes of Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, or Kurt Warner, I'd have a tough time resisting Tom. After all, the last time we saw him play for more than one quarter, he was busy setting the single-season record for touchdown passes.

Of course, long before making such critical fantasy decisions we will know where Matt Cassel is playing. Cassel says he is open to the possibility of returning to New England next season as the backup to Brady, but free agency offers could make him change his tune. The Patriots might apply the franchise tag to the free agent-to-be quarterback as soon as next week. Doing so would tie up a giant percentage of their salary cap in two players that play the same position. Hence, the speculation that the Patriots will entertain trade offers for Cassel. And if they don't retain Cassel, letting him become a free agent, it will send a pretty clear message that the Patriots are confident that Brady will be ready.

What do you think? If you had to draft today, where would you rank Tom Brady heading into the 2009 fantasy football season? Is he top-three at quarterback? Is he No. 1? Or are you too gun shy to roll the dice on him as one of the top quarterbacks next season?

Bo is a member of the FSWA.

Do the Cardinals Have a Chance?

2009-01-27T12:00:00.002-06:00

Here are my thoughts on this year's Super Bowl, originally posted in my blog over at FantasyFootballChamps.com:

I'm not a betting man at all so I had to do some searching to find out what the spread is for Super Bowl XLIII. After some Googling I see that the sportsbooks have the Steelers favored by 6.5 to 7 points and I guess I'm not surprised. The Cardinals are definitely the underdogs in the eyes of the betting public and sports media alike. Again, I won't be betting on this game, but if I were my money would be on the Cards. Do I think the Steelers are the safe bet to win this game? Yes. If these two teams played 10 times, do I think that the Steelers would win more than five of those games? Absolutely. We've all heard that defense wins championships, and no team had a better defense than the Steelers this season.

That being said, the Cardinals have been playing some defense this postseason as well. They have shut down a pretty impressive trio of running games so far this month -- all three of them better than the rushing game that Willie Parker and the Steelers have. The pass defense has yielded the normal number of thouchdown passes (for them) with an average of two per playoff game; however, they have really ratcheted up the takeaways with eight interceptions. Ben Roethlisberger is hardly on a different level than Donovan McNabb and Matt Ryan. We won't talk about Jake Delhomme. And with Hines Ward gimping on a sprained knee, I have to think the Steelers passing game might be borderline inept in Tampa this Sunday.

In other words, if the Cardinals can score more than 20 points in this game, I like their chances of not only covering the spread, but winning the game outright. Heck, Larry Fitzgerald will score at least once so they just have to come up with two more touchdowns. Of course, the Steelers defense could score a defensive touchdown or set up short fields for the offense with takeaways and that could prove to be the difference. In short, I think this is going to be a more interesting game than most people give it a chance of being.

Do the Cardinals have a chance? Hey, I didn't think they'd win any of the three playoff games they've played so far... nothing would surprise me.

So I'm saying there's a chance.

SEE ALSO:
Super Bowl XLIII Preview
Super Bowl Prep

The Case for Fitz

2008-11-17T16:00:00.004-06:00

This past Sunday, Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald caught 10 passes for 151 yards against the Seahawks, but he failed to reach the end zone for the third time in his last four games. In spite of his recent scoring drought, Fitzgerald remains on pace to score 10 touchdowns this season and a solid case could be made that he warrants designation as the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy football. I know his teammate, Anquan Boldin, has caught more touchdown passes this season, and I realize that the Texans Andre Johnson has him by 16 yards. But I don't think many people realize the rarified air Fitz is on pace to reach if he continues at his current clip.

Specifically, Fitzgerald is on pace for 107 receptions, 1,502 yards, and 10 touchdowns. It would mark the third time in his six-year career that he has reached 100 receptions, 1,400 yards, and 10 touchdowns.

That got me to wondering how rare it is for a receiver to reach that trio of milestones. So I started doing some digging and I found that Marvin Harrison has done it four times, Jerry Rice did it three times, and Randy Moss has only done it once. It took Harrison until he was 30 to reach those levels three times. It took Rice, arguably the best to ever play the game, until he was 33 to do it. Fitzgerald is 25. I can't find anyone else who turned the 100/1,400/10 trick three times before their 26th birthday. If you can, let me know.

Whether you play in a touchdown-only league, performance league, or PPR league, and especially if you play in a keeper league, I can't think of a wide receiver I would rather have on my fantasy team. I know Boldin is hotter right now and Roddy White has been every bit as good as Fitz this season, but no one can compare to Larry's combination of skill, youth, stats, and consistency. He will definitely be the No. 1 wide receiver in my rankings heading into next season.

Who Comes After Peterson?

2008-11-17T15:00:00.008-06:00

Whether you call him AD, AP, or Adrian Peterson, what most people are now calling the Vikings Pro Bowl running back is the best player in fantasy football. That is, unless you play in a point-per-reception or touchdown-only league, in which case Peterson remains merely "one of the best." However, most leagues are not built around PPR rules and the basic TD-only league is fading quickly in popularity, meaning that in most cases the NFL's current leading rusher is numero uno.

Of course, for some of us who have been hailing Peterson as the best player in fantasy football since last season, this comes as no surprise. I know there are still some people who don't buy into him as the No. 1 overall player (and I am also sure some of them will comment on this post) but my mind is made up as to who will sit atop my fantasy football rankings again next year.

The question for me is: who is AP? As in: who comes after Peterson in the rankings heading into next season? For some of you in keeper leagues and dynasty leagues and others who are hopelessly behind in re-draft leagues, it is not too early to start looking ahead in this way. We had this discussion of who comes after Peterson during our Fantasy Football Weekly radio program this past Saturday and we did not come up with a clear-cut answer. Michael Turner, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Matt Forte were suggested. A compelling argument could be made for Brandon Jacobs as well. What about Clinton Portis? Joseph Addai?

Compelling arguments could be made against the aforementioned Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook. They were universally ranked with Peterson in the top three on most people's lists heading into the 2008 season; however, both have had injury issues this season and both turn 30 years old (the dreaded age for running backs) this upcoming offseason.

I would suggest with a great deal of certainty that the player who comes after Peterson on my list next summer will not be a quarterback or wide receiver. There is no clear-cut-far-and-away No. 1 player at either of those two positions and therefore no reason to reach for one at the top of the first round.

So, what say you? Fast forward to the summer of 2009 and tell me who you think will be the consensus top two, or three, or four, or five players in fantasy drafts. I'd love to hear some opinions.

Doubting Thomas

2008-11-13T17:00:00.004-06:00

As the Jets get set to take on the Patriots Thursday night in prime time I can't help but think that the hot streak that Thomas Jones has been on lately is about to come to an end. Just as it was easy to see by looking at his schedule that Jones was going to have a productive period from Weeks 6-10, it is easy to anticipate lower numbers for at least the next two games.

Jones was someone I was touting as a buy low candidate prior to his recent stretch; I even tried in vain to acquire him in a trade in two leagues. Too bad I didn't because from Weeks 6-10 he exploded for eight touchdowns and is now tied for second amongst running backs with nine total touchdowns on the season. The nine scores matches his career high. He is also fifth in the NFL in rushing now with 750 yards. His cupcake-filled schedule is clearly to blame. During his recent torrid stretch he played against the 15th, 25th, 29th, 30th, and 32nd ranked run defenses in the NFL. Any runner worth his salt would have put up big numbers.

However, tonight's game against the Patriots should be a different story. The Patriots rank 12th against the run thanks in large part to Ronnie Brown's ridiculous 113-yard, four-touchdown effort against them back in Week 3. Outside of that game, the Patriots have not permitted any running back to top 100 yards or run for a touchdown against them this season. In his last three games against New England, Jones has accumulated a total of 131 yards on 40 carries and has not reached the end zone. After getting stifled by the Patriots tonight, Jones goes on the road to face Albert Haynesworth and the Titans, who currently boast the eighth-ranked run defense and the No. 1 defense in the league in terms of points against. I fully expect Jones to be held under 100 yards and out of the end zone in both games.

After the next two weeks his schedule loosens up a bit again, so fantasy owners could be in a position to "buy low" on him once again just prior to the fantasy playoffs. So if you missed out on the chance to acquire him just prior to his recent tear, have some patience because you might get a second chance... assuming your league has a late trade deadline.

Gettin' Thiggy With It

2008-11-11T11:00:00.001-06:00

You may be asking yourself: "Who in the world is Tyler Thigpen and why the heck is he the hot pickup du jour in fantasy football right now?" Glad you asked! Thigpen was taken in the seventh round of the NFL draft by the Vikings last year and competed for the third quarterback spot on the depth chart in training camp. When the Vikes released him with the intention of putting him on their practice squad, the Chiefs snapped him up and added him to their active roster behind Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard. He attempted only six passes and had one of them intercepted his rookie season.

He began this season buried in the third spot on the KC depth chart again, but when Croyle and Huard were placed on Injured Reserve three weeks ago, Thigpen was given his chance to start. In his first game, he out-dueled his idol, Brett Favre, by throwing for 280 yards and two touchdowns. His performance raised many eyebrows. Two starts later the Chiefs still have not won under him, which is hardly a surprise given the state of their defense, but Thigpen has not been to blame. Through three starts he has completed 65 percent of his passes (66-102) for 710 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions. The completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio is particularly impressive for such an inexperienced quarterback out of the Big South conference. Note: he was the first player from the conference to be drafted by an NFL team.

I'm sure that in the coming weeks, opposing coaches will begin to develop a book on Thigpen, but how much that matters is debatable since his remaining schedule is so favorable. His last seven games with are as follows, with defensive rank against the pass in parentheses: Saints (27), Bills (16), Raiders (13), Broncos (28), Chargers (32), Dolphins (25), and Bengals (10).

As you can see, the balance of his schedule is loaded with cupcakes. With two great weapons like Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe, and the return of Larry Johnson to supply an actual running game this week, there is reason for optimism surrounding Thigpen. If you are in need of quarterback depth down the stretch, you could do much worse than to get Thiggy.

Never Bench Peyton?

2008-11-10T18:00:00.001-06:00

I usually adhere to the "never bench your studs" theory when setting a fantasy football lineup. However, I must admit that I have gotten cold feet three times this season with the safest quarterback play in fantasy football: Peyton Manning.

In Week 6, I benched him on one of my teams (in favor of Kurt Warner) when the Colts played the Ravens. At the time, the Ravens ranked at or near the top of the league in every defensive category and Manning was still a little gimpy with a twice-surgically repaired knee and ordinary (for him) stats. Bad idea! Peyton threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns that week.

In Week 8, in my "Start 'em, Sit 'em" column at Fantasy Football Champs, I placed Peyton in the "Bench" category (provided another viable option was available) as he prepared to face the undefeated Titans. The Titans had allowed only one touchdown pass all season to that point and had also allowed the fewest points in the league. They still rank No. 1 in points allowed, but no thanks to Manning who went for 223 yards, two touchdown passes, and one touchdown run against them.

Then this past weekend, in Week 10, I went to the well a third time and endorsed the benching of Manning given a decent alternative in my FFChamps column. After all, he was on the road facing the Steelers, who ranked No. 1against the pass and in total defense. The jinx worked again. Peyton registered 240 yards and three touchdown passes against the Steel Curtain.

Lesson learned.

There's a reason Manning has been the safest quarterback play in fantasy football for years. He is capable of having great games against any team in any week regardless of their defensive rank. Is he going to mix in some clunkers? Sure, everyone does. More often than not, however, Manning will come through. Just keep him in the lineup and reap the rewards of great numbers 90 percent of the time.

The rest of the Colts schedule only includes one more game that looks like a tough one for Manning, by the way. However, it doesn't come until Week 17 against the Titans and you saw what he did to them last time. Besides, Week 17 should never be used to decide a fantasy football championship, but that's another blog entry for another time.

Vetoing Trades

2008-11-10T15:00:00.000-06:00

A listener to the Fantasy Football Weekly radio show that I co-host called in this past Saturday and asked about a seemingly unbalanced trade that went down in his league. He wondered whether we thought it should be vetoed.

Whenever the topic of vetoing trades comes up, it gets me going. I admit that I get just as frustrated as any owner when a lopsided deal goes down in a league in which I am playing (and I am not the lucky owner on the good end of the deal). That said, I am adamantly opposed to trade vetoes unless and only unless some kind of under-handed intentions (e.g. collusion) can be proven. If two owners are in cahoots to try and build one championship team and split the money, there is not only grounds for veto, but also for kicking the offenders out of the league. In nearly every other case I can think of, vetoing is ill-advised.

The reason is that it opens up an ugly can of worms. Once you set the precedent that trade can be vetoed, every other trade will be called into scrutiny. In light of the fact that almost no trades are completely fair and balanced, this will lead to chaos. Owners will want to veto trades that help their rivals, are the least bit unbalanced, or merely out of spite because one of their trades was shot down.

The bottom line is that you can't legislate against stupidity. Ill-informed, short-sighted, or lazy owners will make stupid trades every year; there is nothing you can do about it. Besides, how many times has that "horrible" trade that made every owner in your league groan and complain turn out to favor the team that supposedly made the terrible deal? From my lengthy experience, I would say at least half the time.

Veto the trade veto.

Thursday Lineups

2008-11-05T14:00:00.000-06:00

You undoubtedly noticed that the Thursday night games began in Week 10 with a contest between the Broncos and Browns on November 6. The Thursday night tilts continue through Week 16, including three games on Thanksgiving.

I know this comes as bad news to those of you who don't get the NFL Network. That sucks, I know. Beyond that, what this also means the time is now to double-check the rules in your fantasy league regarding lineup deadlines. Specifically, this is a good time to make sure you understand the rules and lobby for a midseason change, if need be, before it is too late.

The thing to look for is whether your league rules allow you to make lineup adjustments until the first game of the week or until any given player's game. If the rules dictate that lineups must be set before kickoff of the first game of the week, it's time to get on the phone or start emailing your league members to get the rule changed. There is simply no excuse in this age of Internet league managers to force teams to set their lineups in stone on Thursday for those players who don't play until Sunday or Monday. That's an archaic rule left over from when we all used to score our leagues by hand prior to this Inter-web invention. Yet there are still some leagues out there that do things this way. Normally, I am against midseason rule changes; however, this rule is one that affects all owners equally and can and should be changed to the benefit of all.

And while you are digging around in the league rule book, check to make sure there are tie-breaker guidelines in place for playoff seeding as well as playoff games. It never ceases to amaze me how many times this gets overlooked. Not having tiebreaker rules established will inevitably lead to total chaos in fantasy leagues at the most important time of the season.

Curse of the Top Scorer

2008-07-14T14:00:00.012-05:00

As I was doing some research today for an article at FFChamps.com I came across a rather troubling revelation. I was writing a little something about Packers kicker Mason Crosby because he led the NFL in scoring last year with 141 points and I cited the fact that no kicker has led the league in scoring in consecutive seasons since the Patriots John Smith did so in 1979 and 1980. I annually cite this stat for the reigning scoring champ amongst kickers as a reason to not expect a great follow up season. What’s more, kickers rarely come close to their league-leading total for an encore; just three of them since Smith’s repeat have even come within 20 points of their league-leading total the following year. However, I knew that stat already too because, you know, I’m kind of a fantasy stat geek like that.

What I did not realize, though, was just how pervasive the curse of the leading scorer was. It’s almost as lethal as the Madden or Sports Illustrated cover jinxes. Note I said “leading scorer,” not “leading scorer among kickers.” Of the last eight scoring champs (i.e. all of them this millennium) five are no longer in the NFL. The only three active players are the last two—Crosby and LaDainian Tomlsinon—and Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri, who led the league in 2004 with 141 points as a member of the Patriots. The other players to lead the NFL in scoring since 2000 are: Shaun Alexander (2005) who has yet to find a team willing to sign him since being cut by the Seahawks, Jeff Wilkins (2003) who retired this offseason, Priest Holmes (2002), and Marshall Faulk (2000 and 2001). Go back a bit further and you have Mike Vanderjagt (1999), Gary Anderson (1998), and Mike Hollis (1997), none of whom have an NFL job.

Now, this doesn’t necessarily worry me as far as Crosby is concerned since he is still a few months shy of his 24th birthday and the good kickers have been known to stick around until their late 30s and early 40s. I’m not saying I think Crosby will repeat as scoring champ this season, with or without Brett Favre, because by all accounts that isn’t humanly possible. However, my findings add more fuel to my anti-Tomlinson malaise. I have no doubt that Tomlinson deserves to be one of the first two players selected in fantasy drafts for non-keeper and non-dynasty leagues this year. That said, he turned 29 a few weeks ago, had a knee injury during the postseason that would have forced him to miss an estimated six games had it occurred during the regular season, and spoke to ESPN earlier this offseason about the fact that he won’t be playing five years from now because he wants to go out on top. Running backs that produce past the age of 30 are rare and the level of average output declines precipitously for each additional year after that.

Thus, even in the best scenario I would have thought that L.T. only had three good seasons left in the tank. The jinx of the scoring leader suggests, however, that his exit from the game might come even sooner and there is no hope for another season like the one he had two years ago. I hope that's wrong, but who am I to argue with such overwhelming evidence?

The Favre Saga

2008-07-11T17:00:00.005-05:00

Just when I thought my fantasy football cheat sheets were looking pretty good, the rumors of the return of Brett Favre began intensifying. As a huge Favre apologist, I'm all for it. Though, as someone who would have to go through and re-assess what No. 4's triumphant return to the Packers (or more likely another team) would do to my rankings, I'm not quite as thrilled. Oh well, someone's bound to blow out a knee in training camp and rearrange my rankings anyways, so it's not that big of a deal. Like everyone else, I just want the drama to end soon and some kind of a decision to be made one way or another.

Friday's report by ESPN's Chris Mortenson makes it seem like we're one step closer to some kind of resolution, thankfully. Mort says Favre's agent has contacted the Packers to formally ask for Favre's unconditional release. Then the Packers released a statement this afternoon that read as follows:

The Green Bay Packers are aware of the latest developments regarding Brett Favre.

Brett earned and exercised the right to retire on his terms. We wanted him to return and welcomed him back on more than one occasion.

Brett’s press conference and subsequent conversations in the following weeks illustrated his commitment to retirement.

The finality of his decision to retire was accepted by the organization. At that point, the Green Bay Packers made the commitment to move forward with our football team.

As a retired player, Brett has the option to apply for reinstatement with Commissioner Goodell. If that were to occur, he would become an active member of the Green Bay Packers. As always, the Packers will do what’s right and in the best interest of the team.

As with all Packers greats, Brett’s legacy will always be celebrated by our fans and the organization, regardless of any change in his personal intentions.

Brett and Deanna will always be a part of the Packers family.

Stay tuned because this saga needs to come to a head within two weeks before the start of training camps. We should know soon whether this was all just speculation or Favre actually will be wearing a different team's uniform in 2008.

Simple Draft Day Tips

2008-07-08T22:00:00.001-05:00

It never fails. At every draft I attend, several of the owners show up with a stack of fantasy football magazines and a case of beer thinking they’ve done their preparations for the most important day on the fantasy football calendar. Then they proceed to draft a guy who’s out for the season with a knee injury. Nice work.

I’m not saying you need to study complex strategies like the Value Based Drafting system or strictly adhere to the Stud Running Back method of picking your team, but you have to at least have some kind of strategy and do some kind of prep work. Most of all, you need to pay attention to the news during the preseason in order to stay abreast of the latest on things like injuries and position battles. For those of you who want to take a minimalist approach to your draft prep, here are four easy tips that, when combined with a knowledge of the latest news from around the league, can lead to draft day success.

1. Have an up-to-date cheat sheet with your rankings and auction values if you use an auction to select players. Then track the players as they are selected so you know who has been taken and who is left. Doing so will enable you to always be prepared to pick without suffering the embarrassment of screaming out the name of a player who has already been selected.

2. Have a team-by-team tracker on which you list each player by team as they are picked. This will enable you to know what the needs are of the other teams in your league. Doing so allows you to make smarter selections. For instance, if you are up and still need a tight end, and all the teams that pick between your current selection and next selection already have a tight end, you can wait until your next turn to grab one. Use the current pick to fill a need or add depth at another position instead.

3. Have a schedule handy that includes the bye weeks for each team. It’s just plain dumb to draft three running backs who have the same bye week. Furthermore, having the bye week schedule handy will enable you to maximize the selection of your bye week replacement quarterback. If you draft Peyton Manning, you are probably planning to start him each and every week he doesn’t have a bye. Knowing which week he has off as well as the quarterbacks still available with the softest matchups in his bye week is a must.

4. In many instances you are going to need to insure your stud running back by also taking his backup later in the draft. If you take Adrian Peterson, for example, you have to take Chester Taylor later on in case AD goes on IR. This is known as “handcuffing” players and it is absolutely vital.

Another Mock Done

2008-06-11T23:00:00.004-05:00

I realize it's early and the season doesn't start for another three months, but I've participated in several fantasy football industry expert mock drafts already this year. In fact, we just held our first one of the preseason over at FFChamps.com. I gathered some familiar faces from my days at Fanball.com along with some of my associates at FFChamps and we did a 10-team, 14-round mock on Monday night. The scoring system used was a standard 75 percent-touchdown and 25 percent-yardage with no PPR. The roster requirements were as follows: 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 2 wide receivers, 1 tight end, 1 kicker, 1 defense/special teams, and 6 bench players (any position).

I had the fourth overall pick and took Brian Westbrook, after LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, and Steven Jackson went 1-2-3. Here's how my entire draft went:

1. Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles
2. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
3. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers
4. Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks
5. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
7. LenDale White, RB, Titans
8. Tony Gonzalelz, TE, Chiefs
9. Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings
10. Jerry Porter, WR, Jaguars
11. Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos
12. Baltimore Ravens defense
13. Rob Bironas, K, Titans
14. Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Dolphins

FFChamps subscribers can view the entire mock draft by following this link.

Expert Mock Draft

2008-06-06T14:00:00.003-05:00

Mock... yeah. Draft... yeah. Ing...yeah. Yeah... yeah!

I just wanted to let all of you know that I have organized the first fantasy football Expert Mock Draft of the preseason for FantasyFootballChamps.com and it will take place this upcoming Monday, June 9 at 9:30 pm ET. Those of you who are FFChamps subscribers will be able to follow along online live by going to the mock draft section of the site.

The other industry veterans who will be taking part in the mockery: John Tuvey, Jon Lopuch, Christian Peterson, Jason Powell, Mat Harrison, Tom Blomberg, Court Mann, Colin Pekruhn, and Joe Potenza. I'd like to invite all of you to stop by and watch the draft unfold, but in case you can't we'll have the results posted for subscribers at FFChamps immediately afterward.

Where to Pick McFadden

2008-06-05T14:00:00.000-05:00

Most reasonable fantasy football pundits agree that Darren McFadden should be the first rookie selected in fantasy football drafts this summer. Heck, for what it's worth, the pollsters in FFLegend's unscientific survey say that he'll have the biggest impact amongst the rookie running backs. I completely agree. In fact, I probably have Run DMC ranked too high. At least the more I see other rankings around the industry, the more I believe that to be the case.

Will McFadden be the "next Adrian Peterson"? I doubt it, but what if he comes close? Or what if he is? Every year there is at least one rookie running back who makes a significant fantasy impact, and McFadden has all the skills to be that guy this season. So if he has at least a chance to be the next AD, why is 11th amongst running backs (his current ranking on my cheat sheet) too high? Because the mock drafts suggest he can be taken later.

A lot of people must be skeptical of the Raiders situation. I don't blame them one bit for that; after all, they have been one of the worst teams in football for several years now. Moreover, with Justin Fargas and Michael Bush around, their backfield is very crowded. To which I wonder: if McFadden is everything the scouts and draft experts made him out to be, shouldn't he transcend all of that?

Regardless, I took part in an industry "expert" mock draft on the Monday immediately following the NFL Draft back in April and made McFadden my second-round pick, 17th overall... a selection that raised a lot of eyebrows and probably made some chuckle. My other options at that point, however, were not as compelling in my mind as a guy who has the potential to be the "next big thing." The 16 players already gone by that point were: LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai, Ryan Grant, Marion Barber, Tom Brady, Frank Gore, Ronnie Brown, Marshawn Lynch, Larry Johnson, Randy Moss, Clinton Portis, Terrell Owens, and Braylon Edwards. Honestly, I didn't see another running back with McFadden's potential impact left on the board, and with Brady as my first round pick I needed to take a runner over, say, Reggie Wayne, because I would have been left without any feature backs to choose from by the third round.

In retrospect, I could have probably waited, though, because there's a good chance Darren would have slid to the third round. In fact, according to the Average Draft Position stats compiled from multiple sources at FantasyFootballChamps.com (my full-time gig) McFadden has been a fourth-round pick thus far in early mocks.

Thus, when the opportunity arose to do another industry "expert" mock draft this week, I accepted and wondered how late McFadden would go. I thought bout taking him with my third round pick after taking Westbrook and Brady with my first two selections, but figuring he'd slide, I opted for Steve Smith in the third round instead. The move paid off, because 10 minutes ago I spent my fourth-round selection on McFadden. Do I think that might be too low for him? Clearly, I do. However, if the consensus of the fantasy-football-playing public is that D-Mac is a fourth-round pick this year, so be it. It pays to wait.

Young Gets First Shot

2008-06-02T16:00:00.007-05:00

The Broncos' release of Travis Henry on Monday means that second-year sprinter Selvin Young is entrenched as the Broncos starting running back... for now. Simply put, no Broncos' back job is ever safe as long as Mike Shanahan is head coach. That being said, Young sits atop the depth chart and should be unchallenged for the role now that Henry has been shown the door.

Young likely saw Monday's dismissal of last year's starter coming last week when he told the Denver Post that he thought he could rush for 2,000 yards this season. "The key to that to me is staying healthy," Young told the Post. "Everything else, I believe in wholeheartedly. It's not like I said something to try to get a laugh or to smile or to get people to pay attention to me. It's something I believe is in me." Many a running back has had the temerity to forecast a 2,000-yard season for himself, only to fail miserably. The most recent example was Frank Gore prior to last season's 1,102-yard output. A little math tells us that if you multiply Young's gaudy 5.2 yards-per-carry average from last year over a full season of, say, 350-plus carries...and, carry the one, you get close to 2,000 yards. Of course, only five running backs have cracked the 2,000-yard barrier and, call me crazy, but I'll take the Vikings Adrian Peterson over Young in that prop bet any day of the week.

The main point for fantasy owners in all of this is that the job is Young's to lose and, say what you will about his meddling, but the Broncos have a long history under Shanahan of producing successful fantasy backs. Go ahead and move Young up your cheat sheet to the brink of the top 30 and be prepared to keep moving him up if the Broncos' training camp competition cements his status as their feature back.

I'm rather skeptical that it will, though. The Broncos really like rookie Ryan Torain and brought in Michael Pittman last week in all likelihood to serve as their third-down back. Andre Hall is also in the mix for touches if he makes the team ahead of Pittman. What's more, Young's size has been a bit of a question mark and Shanahan may opt to give someone other than Selvin carries in the red zone. Young packed on five-to-10 pounds of additional muscle this offseason, but it remains to be seen whether it's enough.

As for Henry, his run as a significant fantasy football player is over and his career may be too. T-Hen turns 30 in October, the age when most running backs jump the shark in terms of productivity and begin breaking down. Henry, however, has played a full 16-game season just once in his seven-year career and nagging injuries hampered him after a quick start last season. Heck, he has a hamstring injury right now and was staying away from the Broncos' OTA's, a move that appears to have been the last straw for him in Denver. Add in the fact that he is one positive drug test away from a one-year NFL suspension, and the risk is just too high for all but the most desperate of teams to sign him. Now add in the fact that Henry successfully appealed a positive marijuana test last October, two months after it was disclosed in court that he had fathered nine children by nine different mothers in six years, and the inevitable PR nightmare won't be worth the hassle for any team.

Overrated Eli

2008-05-30T15:00:00.003-05:00

He marched his Giants through the playoffs as a wild card team, winning road games against all odds, even going to Brett Favre's house and taking one from the Packers on the very Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field. He led his team to an unfathomable Super Bowl victory over the previously undefeated New England Patriots that included the most breathtaking play in the game's storied history ("The Escape") and was named Super Bowl MVP. Indeed, Eli Manning had a postseason for the ages, completing 61 percent of his passes while throwing six touchdowns to one interception.

All of which leaves his fantasy football value sky high.

In fact, it leaves his fantasy value too high. Inflation is always a bad thing, whether it's the price of a barrel of crude oil or the cost of a quarterback in your fantasy league. Elisha's postseason heroics have turned a top-15 fantasy quarterback into a top-10 fantasy quarterback on many of the early cheat sheets for 2008, and I may be as guilty as anyone for overreacting and ranking him too high. Actually, scratch that; I'm quite certain I don't have him ranked as highly as fantasy rubes within the greater New Jersey area do. For the record, he is currently eighth on my cheat sheet.

Is Manning really a top-10 quarterback? If you extrapolate his improbable playoff run over a 16-game season, then yes, he absolutely would be. But we all know it's just not that simple. This is a guy who has not thrown for more than 24 touchdowns passes in a season or even come within sniffing distance of 4,000 yards. Maybe, just maybe, his postseason heroics were an indication that he has turned the corner into superstardom and is ready to begin operating at an All-Pro level during the regular season. Then again, maybe Peyton's little brother just had a nice postseason and he is still the same quarterback who has posted virtually identical stats three years in a row and has basically the same supporting cast back with him this year.

For now, I am leaving Eli at number eight in my rankings, but part of the reason for my doing so is that I just don't like most of the other quarterback options. Have you seen what passes as a "starting quarterback" around much of the NFL lately? It's scary. I wouldn't mind hearing from other people how highly they have Eli ranked this year. Please leave a comment and let me know how you feel.

Updated Cheat Sheet

2008-05-29T17:00:00.000-05:00

The FFLegend.com cheat sheet was updated this afternoon and now includes rankings for Team Defense based on the typical measures of defensive touchdowns, sacks, and turnovers created. Given this format, I have installed the Minnesota Vikings as the number one team defense. For the rationale of this ranking, please see this column I wrote about a month ago over on my original blog at BoKnowz.com.

By the way, the cheat sheet is FREE and I will continue to update it throughout the preseason. In addition, the latest version of the cheat sheet includes more colors to help users more easily identify and separate each position. It's kinda pretty, don'tcha think? Don't answer that. Just check out the cheat sheet (it's over there in the right-hand column) and don't act like you're not impressed.

Cheat Sheet Podcast

2008-05-27T16:00:00.000-05:00

I recently participated in a fantasy football podcast over at FantasyFootballGoat.com. I joined host Corey Koehler to go over my FFLegend cheat sheets in some detail as well as talk strategy and touch on current news and notes from around the NFL.

You can listen to the podcast here.

Shaun of the Dead

2008-05-14T14:00:00.001-05:00

Shaun Alexander's storied fantasy football career is over and now it appears his days as a football player may be drawing to a close as well. The 2005 NFL Most Valuable Player was unceremoniously released by the Seahawks back on April 22 and has been looking for a contract ever since. Earlier this month, Alexander released a statement through his public relations firm that said: "I will be playing for another NFL team this fall, and doing everything I can to contribute... I am healthy, energized and looking forward to beginning the next chapter of my NFL career."

Sorry, Shaun... I think it's going to be a short chapter. I know fantasy owners aren't buying his PR self-hype and it appears no NFL teams are either. Alexander had visits with the Saints and Bengals (the team he rooted for as a kid) but so far no one has offered him a contract. It seems Alexander is still under the impression that he is a starting NFL running back. Barring an injury to a current starter, however, Alexander will not be used as such this season. I still think a team will take a chance on him--perhaps the Bengals or Lions--but I've written him off as a fantasy contributor. That is why you will not see his name on my cheat sheet (go ahead, take a look). I publicly stuck a fork in Alexander early last season during the "Fantasy Football Weekly" radio show that I co-host on KFAN and the FAN Radio network and nothing has transpired since to change my mind.

Alexander has missed nine games the past two seasons because of injuries to his wrist, foot, and knee. Even before the injuries started flaring up, Alexander's tip-toeing and soft running style had me very leery of his long-term value. A look at his yards-per-carry average speaks volumes: he averaged 4.6 yards-per-tote over his first six seasons in the league, but has averaged only 3.5 yards-per-attempt in the two seasons since winning the MVP hardware.

Look, I take no particular joy in dancing on Alexander's fantasy football grave. The guy was a great player in his prime and won a lot of owners fantasy championships in 2005. It's just that the guy turns 31 in August, which is past the age of usefulness for 95 percent of running backs. I'd rather see him hang up the cleats now with some of his dignity left and before some poor, inebriated saps in fantasy football drafts start wasting draft picks on him this summer.

Johnson Beefing Up

2008-05-14T12:00:00.000-05:00

Bengals running back Rudi Johnson was one of the biggest busts in fantasy football last year thanks in large part to a nagging hamstring injury that knocked him out of five games and seven starts. A year ago, Rudi was universally ranked amongst the top-10 running backs and was even in the top five on many lists. In fact, the magazine I used to publish, Fanball's Fantasy Football Weekly ranked him fourth at running back in the 2007 Annual Guide. Why so high? Johnson didn't carry the high-end expectations of guys like LaDainian Tomlinson or Steven Jackson, however, his consistency was amazing. From 2004 to 2006, Johnson rushed for exactly 12 touchdowns each season and amassed between 1,300 and 1,460 yards.

Most figured, entering last year, that you could easily pencil him in for a repeat. Then the hamstring injury struck and completely ruined his season, limiting his production to 497 yards and three touchdowns. Just thinking about it makes me want to throw up in my mouth a little.

The good news, however, is that 2008 is the perfect chance to buy low on Johnson because he still has the ability to be a top-10 fantasy back. Currently, Rudi is nowhere near the top-10 running backs on my cheat sheet, but that is already starting to change. The news out of Cincy so far this offseason is promising. First, the Bengals did not take a running back in the draft and passed on the opportunity to sign free agent Shaun Alexander. Secondly, Johnson showed up to Bengals voluntary workouts yesterday completely healed from the hammy injury and had bulked up his upper body via weight-lifting from 212 to 225 pounds, his ideal playing weight. "Last year when I got hurt, it was definitely frustrating for me," Johnson told the Cincinnati Enquirer. "I wanted to come back stronger, more powerful than I've ever been."

This is the kind of offseason news fantasy players love. As such, you can expect to see Rudi continue to climb in my rankings. I'm still a little skeptical given all the chaos in Cincy (see: Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh) but Johnson is still only 28 years old (he turns 29 in October) so he probably has one or two good years left. There's no reason he can't employ his muscled-up frame to net him another 10-touchdown season... at least as long as he stays healthy.

NFL Strength of Schedule

2008-05-13T21:00:00.000-05:00

I thought by now that a lot more sites would have the NFL's strength of schedule published, but it's not very easy to find on this thing they call the Inter-web. I published it last month over on my other site, BoKnowz.com, shortly after the league released the regular season schedule so in case you have not had a chance to peruse it yet, have a look:

The 2008 NFL Strength of Schedule

And, yes, the Patriots really do have the easiest schedule this year. That seems fair, huh?

Bad News Benson

2008-05-07T22:00:00.009-05:00

So Cedric Benson was arrested and charged with boating while intoxicated over the weekend in Texas. Stay hot, Ced. You're just making this too easy for the Bears.

I mean, Benson was already on wafer-thin ice with the team after firmly establishing himself as a bust for three years. The Bears impatience with the fourth overall pick in the 2005 draft was never more evident than during the first day of the NFL Draft last month when they spent their second round pick on Tulane running back Matt Forte rather than going after one of the highly touted quarterbacks that were still on the board.

At 6-2 and 222 pounds, Forte has the size to run between the tackles and take punishment, but he also has the speed to bounce it outside. He can pile up the yards--he finished second in the nation with 2,127 rushing yards last season--and he can pound it in from the stripe--he also scored 23 touchdowns in 2007. In other words, he's the three-down back the Bears thought they were getting when they spent their first round pick on Benson three years ago. While Benson was busy telling anyone who'd listen that he wasn't drunk and didn't resist arrest, Forte was busy making a strong first impression during the Bears rookie three-day minicamp this weekend.

How fitting.

Make no mistake, the Bears plan is to have Forte be their feature back this season with "the other" Adrian Peterson and Garrett Wolfe on background vocals. As for Benson, he might find himself out of a job on June 1. The good thing about all of this for fantasy owners is that the Bears probably won't let the uncertainty of the situation with Benson and their running back depth chart linger into training camp. If Benson is let go and Forte assumes the starting gig, I could see moving him inside the top-25 running backs on my cheat sheets.

Who's the Barber Here?

2008-05-01T15:00:00.006-05:00

With the NFL Draft behind us, we now have a little better idea of what the fantasy football rankings look like as we head into mini-camp season. Earlier in the week, I shared some initial musings in the wake of the draft, but some other storylines are emerging that will have ramifications for our cheat sheets as training camps and preseason games roll around. I’ll begin with the new running back situation in Dallas. The Cowboys drafting of Felix Jones serves two purposes: the one the Dallas brass is going with for now is that he provides a perfect complement to the talents of Marion Barber III and that the 1-2 punch should make them more of a Super Bowl contender. Of course, Jones is used to being “the other back,” having played in the shadow of Darren McFadden at Arkansas.

The other reason for drafting Jones—the one that’s not being talked about so much—is that Jones is the heir apparent to Barber should the Cowboys be unable to reach a long-term accord with the Pro Bowl back. Barber is eligible for unrestricted free agency after this season and the Cowboys reported offer of five years and somewhere in the neighborhood of $30-million was not accepted by Barber and his agent Drew Rosenhaus. Rumors that Rosenhaus was seeking LaDainian Tomlinson-type money for his client have since been denied. You needn’t read too closely between the lines to glean that the Jerry Jones Empire considers Jones more than just a complementary back and great kickoff-return man. They view him as a back capable of playing every down and giving them another home run threat. A veiled comparison to Emmitt Smith was even made in a news conference earlier this week.

For fantasy owners, however, the selection of Jones by the ‘Boys muddles Barber’s value considerably. After Julius Jones departed to Seattle via free agency, Barber appeared to be in line for his first full season of full-time duty—the prospect of which vaulted him up fantasy football cheat sheets well into the top 10 at running back. Having a player of Jones’ ability in the same backfield makes one wonder how much of a chance Barber will be afforded to carry a regular feature back load. The guess here is that MBIII will be the Man early on, but as the season progresses the rookie will be given more and more touches. Until we know more about how the two of them will be splitting time, Barber will remain on the outside of my top-15 running backs looking in.

NFL Draft - Fantasy Fallout

2008-04-28T19:00:00.000-05:00

The NFL Draft is the unofficial start of the fantasy football season. It's simple: once the draft is over we know which players are going to be on which teams, with the exception of June 1st cuts, injuries, holdouts, and other misc. roster meneuverings. I know of at least one league that is holding their draft Sunday night following the completion of the NFL draft...now THAT'S a league that can't wait to get started. I would never advocate holding a draft so early; for me, the ideal time is late August. I'm participating in an industry expert mock draft on Monday night; however, we are not playing the league out. I've been taking in a majority of the televised proceedings from Radio City Music Hall and I've started formulating some initial reactions from a fantasy football perspective...

The Falcons selection of Matt Ryan with the third overall pick didn't mesh with my final mock draft...I changed my mind from Ryan (whom I had tabbed going to the Falcons in previous mocks published at FFChamps.com) to Glenn Dorsey at the last moment after learning of the groundswell of support for the LSU defensive tackle. I figured that just because I thought they should take Ryan didn't mean they would. As it turns out, the pick of Ryan over Dorsey was a close call in the Falcons war room. Overall, I believe Dorsey has the higher upside, but Ryan provides the Falcons a new face of the franchise, a leader, and a legit marquee quarterback...something they desperately needed in the wake of the Michael Vick era. From a fantasy standpoint, Ryan, like all rookie quarterbacks, should not be counted on in redraft leagues. Not even as a backup. He will need a year or two. For now, the Falcons offense will run through Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood.

The Dolphins selection of Jake Long with the first pick in the draft was a foregone conclusion since they had already agreed to terms with him on a deal prior to the big weekend function. The pick that raised some eyebrows, however, was the second-round selection of Long's teammate Chad Henne, the quarterback who's blindside he protected at University of Michigan. I was a little surprised that Henne lasted as long as he did, but it could pay off for him because I believe he'll push hard by the second half of the 2008 season to be the starter in Miami. Remember, the guy currently atop the depth chart, John Beck, was brought in by the previous administration. Henne is a Bill Parcells pick and that will make a lot of difference when Beck struggles, as he inevitably will.

When the Panthers released running back Deshaun Foster at the end of the season, those of us fantasy owners with DeAngelo Williams rejoiced at the thought of him finally getting the job to himself. Williams, their first-round pick in 2006, had shown far more explosiveness than Foster ever had, yet had been relegated to splitting carries. Draft day was a buzzkill for Williams owners, as the Panthers spent their first pick on running back Jonathan Stewart from Oregon, a Jamal Lewis-esque bulldozer with good wheels. At a minimum, a running back committee in the offing again, but Stewart may just earn the starting job even though he'll enter training camp as the backup to Williams. On a positive note, the Panthers addressed their need for offensive line help with the selection of Jeff Otah out of Pittsburgh. They had to give up next year's first-round pick to get him, but if he is as good as advertised, the move will have been worth it. With Stewart and Williams in the backfield and Steve Smith and newcomer D.J. Hackett out wide, the Panthers have numerous weapons. But none of it will matter much if Jake Delhomme doesn't come back all the way from Tommy John surgery on his elbow. Fantasy owners really need to keep an eye on Panthers camp this summer for Delhomme updates and to see if Stewart wins the running back job outright.

Prior to my final mock draft, I had the Raiders selecting someone other than Darren McFadden. I figured they had enough backs on the roster and had myriad other glaring needs. Heck, they had just re-signed Justin Fargas, a 1,000-yard rusher last year, and had an impressive youngster in Michael Bush waiting in the wings. However, I ultimately came to my senses, disregarded Lane Kiffen's quip that running back wasn't an area of need, and realized that owner Al Davis would not be able to resist a player of Run DMC's spectacular ability. McFadden gives the Raiders an immediate offensive presence and will provide quarterback JaMarcus Russell, last year's number one overall pick, with a heckuva nice security blanket. Opposing defenses will need to key on stopping McFadden, which should open things up for Russell in the passing game. If wideout Javon Walker is healthy (a substantial if to be sure) the Raiders could have a surprising number of fantasy contributors.