Another Mock Done

I realize it's early and the season doesn't start for another three months, but I've participated in several fantasy football industry expert mock drafts already this year. In fact, we just held our first one of the preseason over at FFChamps.com. I gathered some familiar faces from my days at Fanball.com along with some of my associates at FFChamps and we did a 10-team, 14-round mock on Monday night. The scoring system used was a standard 75 percent-touchdown and 25 percent-yardage with no PPR. The roster requirements were as follows: 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 2 wide receivers, 1 tight end, 1 kicker, 1 defense/special teams, and 6 bench players (any position).

I had the fourth overall pick and took Brian Westbrook, after LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, and Steven Jackson went 1-2-3. Here's how my entire draft went:

1. Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles
2. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
3. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers
4. Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks
5. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
7. LenDale White, RB, Titans
8. Tony Gonzalelz, TE, Chiefs
9. Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings
10. Jerry Porter, WR, Jaguars
11. Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos
12. Baltimore Ravens defense
13. Rob Bironas, K, Titans
14. Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Dolphins

FFChamps subscribers can view the entire mock draft by following this link.

Expert Mock Draft

Mock... yeah. Draft... yeah. Ing...yeah. Yeah... yeah!

I just wanted to let all of you know that I have organized the first fantasy football Expert Mock Draft of the preseason for FantasyFootballChamps.com and it will take place this upcoming Monday, June 9 at 9:30 pm ET. Those of you who are FFChamps subscribers will be able to follow along online live by going to the mock draft section of the site.

The other industry veterans who will be taking part in the mockery: John Tuvey, Jon Lopuch, Christian Peterson, Jason Powell, Mat Harrison, Tom Blomberg, Court Mann, Colin Pekruhn, and Joe Potenza. I'd like to invite all of you to stop by and watch the draft unfold, but in case you can't we'll have the results posted for subscribers at FFChamps immediately afterward.

Where to Pick McFadden

Most reasonable fantasy football pundits agree that Darren McFadden should be the first rookie selected in fantasy football drafts this summer. Heck, for what it's worth, the pollsters in FFLegend's unscientific survey say that he'll have the biggest impact amongst the rookie running backs. I completely agree. In fact, I probably have Run DMC ranked too high. At least the more I see other rankings around the industry, the more I believe that to be the case.

Will McFadden be the "next Adrian Peterson"? I doubt it, but what if he comes close? Or what if he is? Every year there is at least one rookie running back who makes a significant fantasy impact, and McFadden has all the skills to be that guy this season. So if he has at least a chance to be the next AD, why is 11th amongst running backs (his current ranking on my cheat sheet) too high? Because the mock drafts suggest he can be taken later.

A lot of people must be skeptical of the Raiders situation. I don't blame them one bit for that; after all, they have been one of the worst teams in football for several years now. Moreover, with Justin Fargas and Michael Bush around, their backfield is very crowded. To which I wonder: if McFadden is everything the scouts and draft experts made him out to be, shouldn't he transcend all of that?

Regardless, I took part in an industry "expert" mock draft on the Monday immediately following the NFL Draft back in April and made McFadden my second-round pick, 17th overall... a selection that raised a lot of eyebrows and probably made some chuckle. My other options at that point, however, were not as compelling in my mind as a guy who has the potential to be the "next big thing." The 16 players already gone by that point were: LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai, Ryan Grant, Marion Barber, Tom Brady, Frank Gore, Ronnie Brown, Marshawn Lynch, Larry Johnson, Randy Moss, Clinton Portis, Terrell Owens, and Braylon Edwards. Honestly, I didn't see another running back with McFadden's potential impact left on the board, and with Brady as my first round pick I needed to take a runner over, say, Reggie Wayne, because I would have been left without any feature backs to choose from by the third round.

In retrospect, I could have probably waited, though, because there's a good chance Darren would have slid to the third round. In fact, according to the Average Draft Position stats compiled from multiple sources at FantasyFootballChamps.com (my full-time gig) McFadden has been a fourth-round pick thus far in early mocks.

Thus, when the opportunity arose to do another industry "expert" mock draft this week, I accepted and wondered how late McFadden would go. I thought bout taking him with my third round pick after taking Westbrook and Brady with my first two selections, but figuring he'd slide, I opted for Steve Smith in the third round instead. The move paid off, because 10 minutes ago I spent my fourth-round selection on McFadden. Do I think that might be too low for him? Clearly, I do. However, if the consensus of the fantasy-football-playing public is that D-Mac is a fourth-round pick this year, so be it. It pays to wait.

Young Gets First Shot

The Broncos' release of Travis Henry on Monday means that second-year sprinter Selvin Young is entrenched as the Broncos starting running back... for now. Simply put, no Broncos' back job is ever safe as long as Mike Shanahan is head coach. That being said, Young sits atop the depth chart and should be unchallenged for the role now that Henry has been shown the door.

Young likely saw Monday's dismissal of last year's starter coming last week when he told the Denver Post that he thought he could rush for 2,000 yards this season. "The key to that to me is staying healthy," Young told the Post. "Everything else, I believe in wholeheartedly. It's not like I said something to try to get a laugh or to smile or to get people to pay attention to me. It's something I believe is in me." Many a running back has had the temerity to forecast a 2,000-yard season for himself, only to fail miserably. The most recent example was Frank Gore prior to last season's 1,102-yard output. A little math tells us that if you multiply Young's gaudy 5.2 yards-per-carry average from last year over a full season of, say, 350-plus carries...and, carry the one, you get close to 2,000 yards. Of course, only five running backs have cracked the 2,000-yard barrier and, call me crazy, but I'll take the Vikings Adrian Peterson over Young in that prop bet any day of the week.

The main point for fantasy owners in all of this is that the job is Young's to lose and, say what you will about his meddling, but the Broncos have a long history under Shanahan of producing successful fantasy backs. Go ahead and move Young up your cheat sheet to the brink of the top 30 and be prepared to keep moving him up if the Broncos' training camp competition cements his status as their feature back.

I'm rather skeptical that it will, though. The Broncos really like rookie Ryan Torain and brought in Michael Pittman last week in all likelihood to serve as their third-down back. Andre Hall is also in the mix for touches if he makes the team ahead of Pittman. What's more, Young's size has been a bit of a question mark and Shanahan may opt to give someone other than Selvin carries in the red zone. Young packed on five-to-10 pounds of additional muscle this offseason, but it remains to be seen whether it's enough.

As for Henry, his run as a significant fantasy football player is over and his career may be too. T-Hen turns 30 in October, the age when most running backs jump the shark in terms of productivity and begin breaking down. Henry, however, has played a full 16-game season just once in his seven-year career and nagging injuries hampered him after a quick start last season. Heck, he has a hamstring injury right now and was staying away from the Broncos' OTA's, a move that appears to have been the last straw for him in Denver. Add in the fact that he is one positive drug test away from a one-year NFL suspension, and the risk is just too high for all but the most desperate of teams to sign him. Now add in the fact that Henry successfully appealed a positive marijuana test last October, two months after it was disclosed in court that he had fathered nine children by nine different mothers in six years, and the inevitable PR nightmare won't be worth the hassle for any team.